Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its second calendar year at a delicate point. It is six weeks after the liberation of Kherson and there has been little movement in the frontlines either way since. There is not yet any sign of a full, renewed counteroffensive by the Ukrainians, not helped by the weather which has been above freezing, leaving muddy ground not conducive to military manoeuvre.
“The situation is just stuck,” Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, told the BBC last week, which, if an accurate assessment, is not helpful to Kyiv, badly needing to retain momentum in the run-up to spring. But the political leadership of both countries clearly signalled a desire to try to break the deadlock with new goals for the new year.
