Support for hardline anti-immigration policies linked to ignorance about migration figures, poll suggests – as it happened

A group of people thought to be migrants wade into the sea to board an approaching small boat at Gravelines, France, in an attempt to reach the UK by crossing the English Channel in May earlier this year. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

5.08pm BST

Afternoon summary

• Prison bosses will make room for a possible influx of arrested demonstrators this weekend amid concerns that some jails are close to full, the head of the national governors’ body has revealed. As Rajeev Syal and Ben Quinn report, the police have threatened to arrest hundreds of supporters of the banned group Palestine Action, who plan to protest in London this weekend. Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, has defended banning the group. (See 10.32am.)

• Kemi Badenoch has called for “full transparency” in what the police tell the public about the ethnicity and immigration status of people arrested for alleged offences. She spoke out as more experts criticised the accuracy of Tory claims that migrants are disproportionately involved in sexual crimes. (See 3.42pm.)

• YouGov has published polling figures suggesting a clear link between having hardline anti-immigrant views and being ignorant about the level of illegal immigration into the UK. (See 12.25pm.)

• The UK’s dominant service sector has reported its biggest drop in new orders in almost three years in July, adding to pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates on Thursday. Commenting on the figures, Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, said:

The confidence of businesses in the service sector – Britain’s largest employers – is falling because Labour are putting Britain’s takers before the makers with more tax hikes in the autumn.

• Ministers in Scotland are facing intense criticism over a sluggish increase in exam passes by teenagers from deprived areas after repeated promises to greatly improve performance.

• Money saved using schemes to avoid paying VAT on private school fees could be clawed back by the government, tax experts have said, after it was revealed that the schemes had raised more than £500m.

For a full list of all the stories covered on the blog today, do scroll through the list of key event headlines near the top of the blog.

Updated at 5.10pm BST

4.53pm BST

National living wage on course for 4.1% increase in 2026, Low Pay Commission says

The government has today published its 2025 remit for the Low Pay Commission. This sets the guidelines for the commission to follow when it makes its recommendations later in the year for the national living wage (the rate for people over the age of 21) and the national minimum wage (the rate for younger workers) in 2026.

In an analysis, the Resolution Foundation thinktank says the government is adopting

It says:

The new remit again states that the government “is determined to deliver a genuine living wage”.

But despite this ambitious language, the government has again opted for a steady-as-she-goes approach to the adult minimum wage rate for 2026, which is set to rise in line with typical earnings next year. This was also the approach taken to the 2025 uprating. Similarly, despite a bold pledge to get rid of minimum wage rates for younger workers (under the age of 21), which the government says are “discriminatory”, worrying economic data means reality may be less spectacular. The government has asked the Low Pay Commission to consult on changes in the rate for 18-to-20 year olds, which suggests the 18-to-20 year old rate is set for a smaller increase in 2026 than the large 16.3 per cent increase this year.

Given current forecasts for wage growth and the government’s policy announced today, the Low Pay Commission have said they currently expect the National Living Wage (the NLW – which applies to workers aged 21 and above) to reach £12.71 in April 2016, an increase of 4.1 per cent. This would be a smaller cash increase than all but one year (2021) in the post-2015 National Living Wage era.

UKHospitality, the trade body representing the hospitality industry, has urged the commission to be cautious about the rate at which it raises the living wage. Kate Nicholls, its chair, said:

With significant new costs, such as the increase made to employer national insurance contributions, already hitting businesses hard, any significant wage hike may cost jobs. We urge the Low Pay Commission to recognise these cost pressures and recommend a more gradual and sustainable increase this year.

Regrettably, escalating employment costs are already forcing businesses to reduce staff hours and, in some cases, make redundancies. Across the board, the labour market indicators are flashing red, and the Bank of England has also repeatedly voiced concerns about a potential wage-price spiral fuelling inflation. Inflating wages too far, too fast, would be counter-productive, resulting in fewer people earning a little more, but many more facing job losses or reduced hours, ultimately undermining the goal of putting more money in people’s pockets.

Updated at 5.09pm BST