Russia has began a war on Europe by crossing the Ukrainian border and targeting key parts of the country, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
Despite weeks of tension with Russia deploying troops on the Ukrainian border, the full scale invasion of the country in the early hours of this morning surprised many.
Missiles were launched at airports and military bases, attack helicopters hovered above the capital Kyiv and soldiers fought by the infamous Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
It was this last skirmish, in lands made baron by the meltdown of 1986, which prompted President Zelenskyy to tweet: “This is a declaration of war against the whole of Europe.”
At the end of 2021 a Ukrainian government minister Yuliia Laputina predicted that a full invasion of Ukraine by Russia could trigger World War 3, according to Mirror Online.
As the death toll continues to rise on both sides and Russia pushes on with its offensive, the questions of when and where Vladimir Putin will call on his troops to halt remains key.
Already he has attacked cities across Ukraine, from Kviv in the east of the country to Lviv in the west, throwing to the wind earlier claims that Russia was merely sending in peace keeping forces to the separatist states on the border.
Moving beyond Ukraine presents the possibilities of far graver outcomes for Putin, the Russian people and arguably everyone on the continent of Europe.
If Russian forces keep forging onwards and Nato allies keep to their treaty obligations, countries a long way from eastern Europe may find themselves thrown into a conflict much as with the beginning of WWI.
To the west of Ukraine lie Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, all of which are members of Nato - meaning a Russian invasion of any of these nations is considered an attack on all Nato members, including US and the UK.
All three countries have aligned themselves closely with the countries to their west, and in opposition of Putin.
Today the Polish government showed its colours by urging Nato to bolster its forces in the East after Russia’s military offensive, as it did following the invasion of Ukraine.
In a further display of unity, Poland is also readying 120 hospitals to offer care to Ukrainians injured in the conflict as it opens its borders to those already fleeing the emerging war.
Hungary, whose leader Victor Orban has aligned himself with Putin in the past and has been particularly critical of the impact of sanctions, yesterday voted in line with other EU members states to push ahead with plans to squeeze Russia financially.
Despite his often fiery rhetoric and apparent allegiance to Putin, Orban has never in his 12 years in power once blocked EU sanctions targeting Russia, positioning him as an ally of Western Europe.
The Slovak government has sided totally with EU and Nato allies, approving the deployment of 1,500 soldiers to the Ukrainian border today and lifting coronavirus restrictions to allow refugees in.
The situation to the north of Ukraine is thornier from the perspective of the Western forces and those looking to keep the conflict from expanding further.
Directly north of the country is Belarus, which has allowed 30,000 Russian troops to move in over the past months and is the country’s strongest ally, if not now a vassal state.
It was reported earlier today that ballistic missiles were fired from Belarus into Ukraine.
Alexander Lukashenko, the country’s President, said his troops had not been involved in the invasion so far, but that they would be deployed “if necessary”.
By allowing Russia to move through its lands, the Belarussian government has given Putin access to the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and in doing so has expanded the length of border between Russia and Nato countries considerably.
All three Baltic countries were seized and annexed by Stalin during World War II before gaining independence again with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.
While they now all harbour large minority Russian populations, they have been staunchly aligned with the West since joining Nato in 2004, and anti-Putin sentiments there remain strong.
“This act of aggression is not acceptable, it’s a blatant violation of international law, of all international norms and a crime against Ukrainian people that we condemn,” the three counties said in a joint statement this morning.
Further north still lies Finland, which is not a Nato member and has long held a deep distrust of Russia following the hard-fought and bloody Winter Wars invasion of WWII.
Prime Minister Sanna Marin took to Twitter today to condemn Russia’s actions, and to align her country with nations to the west.
“The attack is a grave breach of international law and threatens the life of numerous civilians,” she said.
“Finland expresses its solid support to Ukraine and Ukrainians and we are looking for ways to increase this support.”
To the south of Ukraine lie Moldova and Georgia, which are not Nato members and have endured Russian invasions over the past two decades.
They have open their doors to fleeing Ukrainians, but their large populations of Russian nationals and relatively small size means they may be unable to put up much resistance to invading forces from the north.
With several strong Nato members to the west and north of Ukraine, and the threat of dragging major powers into conflict, Russian forces may be forced to stop in Ukraine and Belarus.
Whether or not Nato members heed the calls of Kyiv to push back Russian forces on its soil seems remote at this point, given the enormous potential cost of doing so.
Early this morning Putin sent an ominous message to Western countries, saying that “consequences” of any attempt to strike back following the country’s invasion of Ukraine would provoke a response “never seen in history”.
Many have taken his words to mean that a nuclear strike would follow a Nato attack on Russian forces.
According to General Sir Richard Shirreff, ex-deputy supreme commander of Nato, Britain and its fellow Western powers’ first line of defence is now the border of former Soviet states.
If Russian forces do venture into these countries, then nations such the UK, France, Germany and the US will be obliged via their Nato membership to fight.
“There is a possibility that we as a nation will soon be at war with Russia,” General Shirreff said.
“We in this country must recognise that our security starts not on the white cliffs of Dover - it starts in the forests of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.”
Outside of Europe, there are a few countries which would come to Russia’s aid in the event of such a conflict.
Syria has expressed its support for Russia’s occupation of the separatist states earlier this week, although its military forces have been majorly depleted by years of war.
Iran says that while it is opposed to war in Ukraine, it will not outright denounce Russia’s military operation, instead blaming the West for Nato’s presence in the region.
Foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, said the crisis is “rooted in Nato’s provocations”.
Further afield, Putin may find an ally in Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, who expressed “solidarity” with his Russian counterpart last week.
The Brazilian Foreign Relations Ministry released a short statement calling for the “immediate suspension of hostilities and the beginning of negotiations” after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, notable not referring to Russian action as an invasion.
By far the biggest potential ally for Russia in the event of a global war is China.
So far Beijing has refused to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine, instead urging restraint by “all parties” and repeating criticism that the US was to blame for “hyping” the prospect of war.
Putin was the only world leader to meet with Xi Jinping at the start of the Winter Olympics, strengthening the bond between two leaders who share ambitions when it comes to separatist states beyond their borders.
Boasting the largest army in the world at more than four million troops, and the second biggest economy, the prospect of China and Russia combining forces is a chilling one.
The Asian country has remained largely separate from foreign conflicts in recent history however, and may be unwilling to risk its trading partnership with European nations and the US.
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