World Cup final is already the biggest ever prediction market as Kalshi bets top $1.27 billion—with Spain favored to beat Argentina

Spain's national team players stand on the left while Argentina's national players stand on the right. (Credit: FIFA—Getty Images)

The World Cup is driving record-breaking activity on prediction markets, with popular platforms Kalshi and Polymarket reporting their highest trading volumes to date. Just days ahead of Sunday’s final, the Argentina–Spain contract has become the single largest market in the platforms’ history, while overall World Cup trading has outpaced other major sports-related contracts.

According to data shared by Kalshi, the contract for the outcome of the Argentina–Spain final, which went live Wednesday following Argentina’s win over England, has already surpassed $1.27 billion in trading volume. As of mid-day Friday, bets on Kalshi showed the Spanish team with 61% odds to prevail over Lionel Messi’s squad.