It’s as if, one Liberal said this week, there are only two moods in the parliamentary Liberal Party at present – fear of the future and unease about the past.
Some might have been building up to a new emotion during the party’s wild ride this week as resistance built to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s odd position on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament grew and culminated in the shadow attorney-general, Julian Leeser, stepping down in a moment of principle rarely seen in politics.
But the Opposition has been moving to quite a beat, and it only took the slightest drop in tempo for Liberal MPs to be reminded of the ultimate source of their present problems.
Neither Mr Dutton’s first day on the campaign trail against the Voice nor deputy Sussan Ley’s on a nationwide “listening tour” – and not even the implied moral gulf between them – could stop the media from turning its gaze back to Scott Morrison.
Glimpse of the obvious
A member of the party’s Victorian state executive gave some relief from the enthusiastic speculation (sparked exclusively, most recently by TND) about Mr Morrison’s impending departure from politics with a sober assessment of what his staying on in Parliament means for the Liberals.
Ian Quick said the party’s once-in-a-century pasting in the Aston by-election had been handed to it by voters still influenced by their “negative view of the Morrison government (shared by quite a few Liberals, even worse now due to the secret roles of the then-PM)”.
But they were motivated, Mr Quick said, by “the view that nothing has changed since”.
That is true and not any less so since that crushing defeat pushed Mr Dutton to stamp his authority on his party colleagues by binding them to a sharply negative position that has him leading a campaign against the Voice.
Comparisons to Mr Morrison, who never heard protests about civility and moderate policy stances while leading, won’t help at all.
So under the thumb were the Liberal moderates under the former PM that they politely wrote a letter asking him to change his climate policy shortly before they lost their seats in no small part because he didn’t seem to have read it.
This week Senator Simon Birmingham, the leader of the moderates, seemed downright plucky by comparison even while going on television to put up a negligible fight against a stance he does not believe in.
“I think listening is crucial if we’re to achieve the best possible outcome from this, possible reconsideration across the political divide,” he said.
Mr Morrison would not have allowed even these stammering displays.
Mr Dutton, meanwhile, was on the hustings but mostly showing that the natural irrelevance of Opposition is only compounded when the ghost of a previous leader hangs over a party.
Fevered speculation
So will he go?
Nobody knows for sure with Mr Morrison, a leader not known for candour.
Many believe he will pull the pin after Parliament returns for the budget, but reporters are mostly fudging and have predicted a range of dates all the way up to the end of this year.
The truth is Mr Morrison does not have many options nor, unlike most of his predecessors, a lifelong salary entitlement (though taxpayers have been topping up his retirement fund at a generous rate).
TND understands he will go after Parliament returns.
Mr Morrison was offered a role with a non-profit in the US (and not one in New York) and moved to take it only because the circumstances in which he left office means he has not exactly been overwhelmed by more prestigious offers.
“He’s sending out the word that he’s in the market for a board position so hurry up – snap him up,” says journalist Ronni Salt, of the recent explosion in speculative stories.
“He’s easier to read than a $2 watch.”
Still, no one in the party can complain too much and not only out of deference to the former PM or the 12-point margin the Liberals expect to hold in Cook, because the Shire will show respect to one of its own while other voters might be moved to do the opposite.
The faction he built from scratch and marched alongside into the Prime Minister’s office is being dismantled around him. Otherwise, depressed Liberals are springing into action to negotiate over the remains of his power base.
A ballot was declared on Wednesday evening for the Senate seat held by the late Jim Molan (which forces loyal to Mr Morrison absorbed efficiently and gracelessly last term).
It seems set to be a victory for the party’s moderates (perhaps the first in a long time).
And next month the former immigration minister Alex Hawke will face a motion calling for his expulsion from the party at a meeting of its New South Wales members, while his close ally’s Stuart Robert’s problems are of the sort that seem only to multiply.
Although that would just about be the end of Scott Morrison’s empire – but the lingering former emperor seems to be encouraging the mystery, for now.
