Prime Minister Rishi Sunak flung open the black door to Downing Street for perhaps his final party of the summer season yesterday. In the back garden he has recently hosted famous actors, MPs (for a hog roast), and the President of the United States. Last but not least came the turn of the staffers who work for Conservative MPs in parliament. They rang in the summer recess with some free drinks. The PM clearly wants to keep everybody sweet. And who can blame him? Labour has just kickstarted selections for 94 Tory safe seats, currently occupied by the likes of Theresa May and Liz Truss, that it thinks it could win at the next election if there is a red landslide. There is clearly a cocky mood at the top of the party after last week’s Selby and Ainsty by-election, in which Labour overturned a 20,000 Tory majority. As the PM deals with the big issues, attention in Number 10 is also turning to election planning. What will the campaign look like? And who might he call in to help?
David Cameron
David Cameron, who brought the Conservatives back into government after 13 years, had his reputation tarnished by Brexit and has largely disappeared from public life. The Greensill scandal didn’t help either. But when he does pop up, as he did with his wife Samantha to celebrate the 10th anniversary of gay marriage this week, the former PM can still work a crowd. Some Tories think he should have a more prominent role in the election campaign. Likelihood? 8/10.
Rory Stewart/Sir John Major
An endorsement from Rory Stewart or Sir John Major will be a stamp of approval for disaffected liberal Tories. Stewart’s popular podcast, The Rest Is Politics, has made him an idol for Centrist dads. He might win some over. Sir John, who has rewritten his chaotic time in office as a halcyon period of smooth-sailing, would convince a similar voting bloc. But can either get over their hatred of Brexit? Likelihood? 6/10.
Baroness Warsi/Baroness Davidson
Former Tory stars Baroness Davidson and Baroness Warsi could broaden the Government’s appeal. Once Conservative deputy chair, Baroness Warsi broke with the party when she said it had a problem with Islamophobia and called for an inquiry (which was branded a whitewash). Davidson led the Scottish Tories to some of its best election results in recent years but has since taken a back seat to raise a family. She has also disagreed with much of the leadership’s programme since Brexit. Might Rishi Sunak seek a reconciliation? Likelihood? 4/10.
And the ones to avoid...
Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Nadine Dorries. With these three ghosts of governments past, the PM might do all he can to avoid an endorsement. Short-serving Chancellor Kwarteng took another blow to his reputation this week. It turns out the Office for Budget Responsibility report on his mini-Budget — the one that he and Truss chose not to release — gave a scathing forecast that was largely vindicated. Dorries, ultra-loyal to Boris Johnson, continues to sound off in her Daily Mail column about the terrible wrongs done to Sunak’s predecessor but one. She’s even writing a book about it, titled The Plot. Likelihood? 0/10.
