It appears the 49ers are ready to let go of quarterback Trey Lance. At least, that’s what Ian Rapoport’s report on the team fielding calls about the QB would indicate.
Rapoport’s report from “sources,” specified it was the 49ers receiving calls, not placing them. That would appear to be something coming directly from San Francisco. They’re letting teams know publicly that they’re open for business on the 2021 No. 3 overall pick.
General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan always say they’ll listen on any player. This is different though. This isn’t a team calling them about Deebo Samuel’s trade request. This is San Francisco trying to drum up interest in its talented, young signal caller with just four NFL starts under his belt.
As recently as the NFL owners’ meetings the 49ers were ready to let Lance and Sam Darnold duke it out for the QB1 job while Brock Purdy recovered from offseason elbow surgery. They conveyed a belief in Lance and repeated the line that he just needs to play to help clear the experience hurdle that has been in his way since the COVID-19 pandemic eliminated his final college season.
Now this report surfaces and suddenly Lance’s immediate future in San Francisco appears to be in jeopardy.
So, how did we get here? Here are some theories on why the 49ers might want to trade the former No. 3 overall pick:
The timeline
The 49ers are running out of time with Lance, and to this point all indications are they have no plans on giving him the necessary runway to see what he can do as a full-time starter.
Indications from the team say they’re all in on Brock Purdy who is recovering from offseason surgery on his torn UCL. That means Lance, who has two years plus a fifth-year option left on his rookie deal, is slated to be a backup for the duration of his stint in San Francisco. His exit in free agency after the 2024 season (the 49ers wouldn’t pick up his expensive fifth-year option) would net the team nothing in return.
The 49ers might be more keen to let this play out if they had the entirety of his rookie deal to see how Purdy progresses. They don’t have that luxury though, and his value only goes down after this season when another year is down on his first contract. Leaking now that they’re aiming to trade him could potentially lead to a bidding war where San Francisco lands a much earlier pick than they originally thought they’d get.
Injury problems
Quarterback injuries have been such an issue for San Francisco that they may not want to move forward with Lance regardless of his future as a QB. He injured his finger in the final preseason game of his rookie year. Then he hurt his knee at Arizona in his first NFL start. Then he fractured his fibula in Week 2 last year.
Since Shanahan arrived in 2017, the 49ers have used more than one QB in five of six years. Injuries at QB derailed playoff or Super Bowl hopes in 2018, 2020 and 2022. There’s an argument to be made it affected them in 2021 as well with Jimmy Garoppolo playing through a couple injuries.
San Francisco brought in Lance to replace Garoppolo in part because of the veteran’s injury woes, and now Lance is having issues staying on the field.
Maybe they're just out entirely
There’s a chance the 49ers are just entirely out on Lance and don’t actually think there’s a world where he becomes a good quarterback. They’ve publicly backed Lance and how much they like him and believe in him, but their actions to this point say otherwise. That would put them in a spot where they’re just looking to cut bait and get something back.
If this is the case they may not be picky in what they get back. They’d just want anything of value in return for a player they’re ready to punt on after four NFL starts across two seasons.
There is a value problem here though. Lance is still a QB who has been in their system for two-plus years. He’s capable of starting and winning games. The 49ers would really have to believe the worst in him as a player to cut ties with a QB for something like a third-round pick.
Brock Purdy
The fact it’s leaked that the 49ers are receiving calls about Lance is a further indication of what we’ve already known based on this offseason: the 49ers love Brock Purdy.
Trading Lance would be the ultimate endorsement of the 2022 seventh-round pick, ostensibly handing him the keys to the franchise on the strength of his extremely productive rookie campaign. It would also tell us a lot about how the team thinks his recovery from offseason elbow surgery will go.
Moving the third-year QB before or during the draft would leave the QB room with Purdy, Darnold and perhaps a rookie or journeyman veteran. That situation puts a lot on Purdy’s shoulders in his second season, but it appears to be a risk San Francisco is willing to take.
