Why The Wolf Pack Will Win: How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Nevada will look to snap a 14 game losing streak on the road against Fresno State. Here is how they can defeat the Bulldogs and my prediction.
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Can Nevada Snap A 14 Game Losing Streak? Here Is How They Can Accomplish That.
WEEK 5: Nevada Wolf Pack (0-4) vs Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0)
WHEN: Saturday, September 30th- 7:30pm PT/8:30pm MT
TV: Fox Sports 1
RADIO: Nevada is on 105.7 KOZZ in Reno and Fresno State is on AM 1340 Fox Sports in Fresno
SERIES RECORD: Fresno State leads the all time series 3-122-1. The last meeting was in 2022 when Fresno State won 41-14.
WEBSITES: NevadaWolfPack.com, the official Nevada athletics website | gobulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website.
GAME NOTES: Nevada | Fresno State
ODDS: Fresno State (-24.5)
SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 28.5
FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 28.1
The Nevada Wolf Pack open up Mountain West play on the road as they face the #25 Fresno State Bulldogs.
The Wolf Pack completed a winless non-conference slate for only the third time since joining FBS in 1992. After blowing a 17 point lead in a 35-24 loss to Texas State, the Wolf Pack are once again back at it trying to snap a long losing streak.
The Wolf Pack face a Fresno State team that has won 13 straight games dating back to last season. The Bulldogs are ranked in the top 25 in the AP poll, they are 4-0 and have an offense that is potent.
Fresno State is fresh off of hammering Kent State 53-10 last Saturday night in Fresno. The Bulldogs rolled up 513 yards of offense in the win over the Golden Flashes. Fresno State QB Mikey Keene threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns.
Nevada will once again go up against another explosive and talented offense. Can the Wolf Pack slow down a very talented offense and drum up enough offense to win?
Here are my three reasons why Nevada will win and my prediction:
Play like they did in the first half against Texas State for the full game
The first half against Texas State last week was without a doubt the best half of Nevada football all season.
The Wolf Pack were moving the ball well on offense as they scored on a Brandon Talton field goal to take the lead. Then the Wolf Pack’s KK Meier intercepted a TJ Finley pass and returned it for a touchdown to go up 10-0. The next Wolf Pack offensive series saw Nevada move the ball well once again and they scored a touchdown to go up 17-0.
Then the second half happened and you can guess what happened after that.
Stand by for a cliche but true statement coming from me in three, two and one: Football is a 60 minute game and Nevada failed to put together a complete game where they played their best to win.
Offense, defense and special teams must get it together to put on that winning 60 minute effort. If the Wolf Pack win on Saturday night in Fresno, it is because they finally played a complete, well executed game from beginning to end.
Nevada’s defense gets to the quarterback and forces turnovers
For all of Fresno State’s success on offense this season, the Bulldogs have had trouble protecting the quarterback. The Bulldogs have given up 11 sacks this season through four games which places them 104th in the nation in Sacks Allowed category.
If Nevada’s defense can generate enough of a pass rush to disrupt Fresno State, then the Wolf Pack have a chance. And if Nevada’s defense can put pressure on Mikey Keene ,then maybe Nevada can force some turnovers.
It won’t be easy as Keene has thrown only two interceptions this season so he is good at protecting the ball. However, Nevada wins the game on Saturday by pressuring Keene and forcing him to make mistakes.
Nevada establishes their run game
The Wolf Pack offensive numbers after five games are abysmal and this offense is hard to watch. But establishing a consistent ground game against Fresno State would be a reason why Nevada will win. Kent State and Eastern Washington were able to run the ball against Fresno State. Eastern Washington rushed for 133 yards in their overtime loss to Fresno State.
And Kent State rushed for 129 yards against the Bulldogs. Fresno State’s defense did tighten up against Kent State and the run offense struggled.
The Wolf Pack are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry so far this season but they must find a way to get the ground game going. A healthy dose of Sean Dollars and Cross Patton and those players gaining big yards would be a key reason why Nevada upsets Fresno State on Saturday night.
Prediction
Fresno State 31 Nevada 20
This is a contest between two teams on the opposite end of long streaks. Fresno State are winners of the last 13 games in a row while Nevada have lost 14 straight.
Fresno State is playing fantastic on offense and defense and looks like not only the class of the Mountain West but the class of the Group of 5. Nevada has been the dregs of college football and last week’s crushing loss does not help matters. Also not helping is the Wolf Pack facing a Fresno State team that is playing very well.
The question is can Nevada play a good and complete game and I do not think so. The Wolf Pack struggle to be consistently good at running and passing the ball. And the Nevada defense can’t seem to even contain offenses that are very good to great.
And the Wolf Pack will once again face another talented offense and once again Nevada will struggle and that losing streak will be extended to 15.
