- Lowell has dropped to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds near 120 mph as it tracks just west of Kauai and Niihau overnight, after twice reaching Category 5 strength earlier this month — only the third Pacific hurricane on record confirmed to hit that intensity twice.
- A Tropical Storm Warning covers both islands, with forecasters calling for up to 14 inches of rain in higher terrain, surf as tall as 20 feet on south- and west-facing shores, and gusts that could top 75 mph.
- Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency and mobilized 129 National Guard members; Kauai has opened five shelters as officials privately measure Lowell against 1992's Hurricane Iniki, the last storm to hit the island head-on.
Hurricane Lowell is sliding past Kauai and Niihau overnight several hundred miles weaker than the monster it was a week ago, though forecasters warn the storm still carries enough punch to trigger flash floods, mudslides and dangerous surf across Hawaii's western islands before it clears out Tuesday night.
A Two-Time Category 5 Loses Steam on Approach
Lowell began as an unremarkable tropical storm on Aug. 27, packing 40 mph winds roughly 1,530 miles east-southeast of the islands. Warm ocean water fueled an explosive buildup over the following days, and by Sept. 2 the storm had rocketed to Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds — the first Central Pacific hurricane to reach that tier since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Wind shear and an eyewall replacement cycle knocked it back to Category 3 within days, only for Lowell to rebound to Category 5 a second time on Sept. 5, bottoming out at 922 millibars, its lowest pressure of the season. Records for Pacific storms hitting that intensity twice are scarce; the last confirmed case was 2006's Hurricane Ioke.
By the time Lowell turned north toward Hawaii for the weekend, dry air and shear had sapped much of that strength. The latest advisory placed the storm's center about 485 miles southwest of Lihue late Sunday, packing 120 mph winds and a central pressure of 948 millibars, moving north-northeast at roughly 9 mph.
What Kauai and Niihau Can Expect Overnight
Forecasters expect Lowell's center to track roughly 100 to 150 miles west-southwest of both islands late Monday into Tuesday morning, according to Fox Weather. Even at that distance, Kauai County is bracing for sustained winds between 35 and 55 mph with stronger gusts, rainfall that could top 14 inches in mountainous terrain, and storm surge of one to three feet above normal in surge-prone spots along the coast. A flood watch runs from Sunday at noon through Tuesday afternoon. Oahu is expected to see milder effects, with gusts in the 30-to-40 mph range and lighter rain arriving Monday afternoon.
Shelters Open, Golf Course and Parks Close
Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami signed his own emergency proclamation and activated the county's Emergency Operations Center as the storm approached, according to a county update issued Sunday. Five shelters opened across the island — the Kilauea and Kalaheo neighborhood centers, Kapaa Middle School, the gymnasium at Kauai High School and Waimea Canyon Middle School — though none supply bedding, cots or food, and pets are welcome only if crated. Officials also closed the Wailua Golf Course and its restaurant, the Koloa HI5 redemption center, all county parks and campgrounds, and every state park and forest reserve on the island.
An Uneasy Echo of Hurricane Iniki
The preparations carry extra weight on Kauai because of what happened in 1992, when Hurricane Iniki swerved off its forecast path and slammed directly into the island as a Category 4 storm, killing seven people and causing more than $3 billion in damage with gusts that topped 200 mph. Emergency managers have pointed to that surprise turn as a reason to keep preparing for a worst-case scenario even as Lowell's current track keeps it offshore. Gov. Green's Sept. 3 emergency proclamation activated 129 of the state's National Guard troops and pre-positioned six high-water rescue vehicles on Kauai, with as many as 5,600 additional guard members available statewide if conditions worsen.
Two More Storms Share the Pacific — For Now
Lowell isn't the only system meteorologists are tracking. Tropical Storm Karina, which peaked near Category 4 strength earlier in the week, has since faded to roughly 50 mph winds and is transitioning toward a post-tropical low some 655 miles northeast of Hilo — far enough from Lowell that the two storms' brief flirtation with a Fujiwhara interaction, in which nearby cyclones begin orbiting each other, now looks unlikely given how quickly they're separating. Hurricane Marie, meanwhile, has weakened to a Category 1 storm about 800 miles west of Baja California's southern tip and is expected to fade to a remnant low by midweek; forecasters attribute the dangerous surf and rip currents building along Baja California and Southern California specifically to Marie's swell rather than to all three storms combined.
As of Sunday night, Hawaii authorities had reported no deaths or structural damage tied to Lowell, though officials warned that flash flooding and landslides in mountainous areas remain the biggest danger until the storm moves fully clear of the islands Tuesday night.
