Francesco Bagnaia does not expect to repeat his Japanese Grand Prix victory this year, saying a “top seven” finish is the most he can hope for.
The factory Ducati rider dominated last year’s MotoGP weekend at Motegi, qualifying his bike on pole position and winning both races in commanding fashion.
Although his path to victory was made easier by team-mate Marc Marquez being more focused on wrapping up the title, the Japanese GP stood out as an outlier in an otherwise wretched campaign for the Italian.
A year on from that memorable result, Bagnaia doesn’t think he will be fighting at the front of the field, citing the harder tyres introduced by Michelin and a resurfaced track that makes any comparisons with 2025 largely redundant.
“Every season is different, so I don't have any expectations from this year. I love the track, I love the people, I love the culture. It's something that is always giving me a good vibe,” Bagnaia said on Thursday.
“The reality is that we need to focus, and the objective is to fight for the top seven, to be realistic.
“We need to understand the new asphalt, the differences of the tyres, and see if we can maybe solve the grip issue with the new asphalt.
“But in any case, it's another good track for braking, so I think that the gap can be shorter compared to other circuits. I hope to start well tomorrow and have some good feelings.”
Asked whether he would be able to compare his data with last year’s, Bagnaia added: “No, unluckily not.”
Bagnaia enjoyed improved fortunes in the summer, scoring four podiums in a row between Barcelona and Brno. However, his form nosedived after the season resumed at Silverstone, leading to a run of three consecutive DNFs. It wasn’t until the last round in Austria that he was able to finish inside the points again and begin his recovery.
Motegi has historically been a strong venue for Ducati, with the track’s start-stop nature suiting the Desmosedici.
Asked whether he can go better than a top-seven finish this weekend, Bagnaia replied: “It all depends on how we can adapt to the new asphalt grid and if we can take advantage of it. It will be important to start well and to work well.
“The top seven is the most realistic goal.
“In these situations, it's better to be realistic and optimistic, because being optimistic is something that we do a lot with the team. We work a lot to do our best, but we have to be optimistic and accept the fact that we can struggle a little.”
