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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Larry Elliott

Why August is one of the most dangerous months in the financial calendar

People sit on parched grass in Greenwich Park in summer looking north towards Canary Wharf
Stock market trading volumes tend to be light in August, and if the month starts calm, it will tend to stay calm. Photograph: Richard Barnes/Alamy

Fears of a recession in the US. The biggest one-day fall on the Japanese stock market since 1987. Policymakers away on their summer breaks, leaving their deputies in charge. All familiar enough territory for August – one of the most dangerous months in the economic and financial calendar.

In theory, August should be a month when not much happens and often that is the case. Stock market trading volumes tend to be light and if August starts calm it will tend to stay calm. But bad things can happen and when they do they can have profound consequences.

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