The last group stage fixtures from the Euro 2024 qualifiers are set to be played across the coming two weeks, though some nations have already booked their place at the tournament in Germany next summer.
England are already among them - Gareth Southgate just needs the Three Lions to just take one point from their remaining two fixtures to guarantee top spot in Group C, with Malta and North Macedonia their upcoming opponents.
But for the likes of Wales, Netherlands and plenty of others, there’s still work to do and the next two weeks will prove crucial.
As a reminder, the qualification groups will provide 20 of the 24 nations who will play at the European Championship, alongside hosts Germany and three play-off winners who will be chosen according to their Nations League performances.
Meanwhile, eight nations are already through to the finals alongside Germany, being uncatachable in their respective Euro 2024 qualifier groups.
Who has already qualified for Euro 2024?
Germany, obviously, as hosts. From the qualifiers, the following eight are guaranteed to be there next summer: Spain (qualifying Group A), Scotland (A), France (B), England (C), Turkey (D), Belgium (F), Austria (F), Portugal (J).
Who can still qualify from each group?
Group A: Done and dusted, with just top spot to decide between Spain and Scotland.
Group B: Netherlands have a huge head-to-head advantage over Greece, their rivals for second, so one win from their last two against Ireland and Gibraltar will guarantee them second. In other words, they’re almost there. Greece are level on points with the Dutch but only have one match left, against already qualified France.
Group C: It’s Ukraine or Italy for second behind England. The Euro 2020 winners face North Macedonia first, where a win will take them level with Ukraine on points - and the two nations then have an effective play-off in the final round of games. Italy won the reverse fixture 2-1, so a draw favours them, but this is Ukraine’s “home” match - which will actually take place in Leverkusen, Germany.
Group D: Three teams are in the running for second but it looks like Wales or Croatia, who are level on points. The latter have the easier fixtures left, facing fifth-placed Latvia and fourth-placed Armenia, while Rob Page’s squad face Armenia then group-toppers Turkey. However, Turkey have already qualified and Wales have the better head-to-head record over Croatia thanks to Harry Wilson’s brace in October’s 2-1 win.
Wales celebrate after Wilson’s goals against Croatia— (REUTERS)
Here’s the twist: Armenia are only three points back, so if they manage to beat both Wales and Croatia, we could see a three-way tie on 13 points. Naturally that mini-league would depend on the upcoming two fixtures in terms of head-to-head (-to head) results, but earlier in the group Armenia beat Wales 4-2 and lost 1-0 to Croatia, so the “as it stands” in that hypothetical trio is Wales and Croatia both joint-top with four points, then Armenia on three. Everything to fight for, then - but two Wales wins means they’ll simply go through.
Group E: With nobody definitely through, there are a world of possible outcomes still. Albania are top, two points ahead of Czech Republic. Then it’s Poland, one point further adrift, and another one point to fourth and still very much in the running, incredibly, for Moldova.
Of the quartet, Poland only have one game left at home to Czech Republic (or Czechia, as Uefa now term them) so the odds are against them finishing top two, while Albania face Faroe Islands last so are surely certain to earn a qualifying berth. However, if Moldova manage to beat Albania at home on Friday, they’ll be at least third heading into the last round of games, when they are away to Czech Republic. That game, then, would effectively be another one-match shoot-out for a place at Euro 2024. If Albania beat Moldova away and Czech Republic win in Poland, though, it’s suddenly all over - they’ll both be through.
Group F: Belgium and Austria are already through; the former are top and one point clear with one match each remaining.
Group G: Nobody is yet through officially but it’s pretty close. Hungary (14 points) and Serbia (13) are well clear of Montenegro (eight) but as they have two games left they could technically overhaul one or the other. They must beat Lithuania at home and Hungary away, as well as either Hungary losing their next game (away to Bulgaria) or Serbia losing on the final matchday (home to Bulgaria). If the former happens, Montenegro will beat Hungary on head-to-head; meanwhile if Serbia draw their final game and Montenegro win both, it’s Serbia who progress on head-to-head there. Bulgaria have only taken two points in the group so far, so it’s unlikely to come to that anyway.
Group H: A very intriguing top three has Slovenia top on 19, Denmark on 19 and Kazakhstan on 15. However the top two play each other in Copenhagen on Friday while the Kazakhs are home to San Marino. Assuming they win, they’ll be hoping for Denmark to at least get something from the other fixture - because it’s then another one-match all-or-nothing encounter on the final day, as Slovenia host Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan have never qualified for a major tournament— (EPA)
If either Slovenia or Denmark wins their meeting, they have qualified. They drew 1-1 last time out. Denmark face Northern Ireland in their last game and have a better head-to-head over Kazakhstan so if Denmark draw both their last two, they are guaranteed to go to the Euros. Slovenia can lose to Denmark and draw with Kazakhstan and qualify, but will not go through if they draw then lose - assuming the side currently in third don’t slip up against San Marino, of course.
Group I: Slightly more complex given Israel had two postponed matches left to play - but losing to Kosovo means their chances of progression are diminished. They next face Switzerland on Wednesday and victory for the Swiss would see them qualified - as well as meaning Kosovo cannot get a top-two finish. Currently top is Romania, who face Israel (third) and Switzerland (second) in their last two fixtures. If Switzerland do beat Israel, a draw for Romania against the same opposition would be enough to seal their own progression to Euro 2024. Regardless of Israel vs Switzerland, a win for Romania over Israel also qualifies them.
Kosovo need a mathematical miracle, having to beat Switzerland Belarus as well as Switzerland not taking more than one point from their other two games and Israel to not win two of their remaining three.
Group J: Portugal are there so it’s one from three behind them: Slovakia (16 points), Luxembourg (11) or Iceland (10).
Slovakia’s 1-0 win in Luxembourg last month was a pivotal result— (AP)
Slovakia can remove any need for number-juggling if they beat Iceland at home on Thursday night, which would put them out of reach in second. They also face Bosnia-Herzegovina away on the final day.
Luxembourg have to beat Bosnia at home and bottom nation Liechtenstein away, while hoping Slovakia lose both as it’s Slovakia who have a better head-to-head. Iceland probably need miracles along the lines of Cristiano Ronaldo switching nationalities, given they face Portugal away last.
