Boris Johnson's premiership was hanging by a thread on Tuesday night after two cabinet ministers resigned in protest at Downing Street's handling of a number of recent scandals, most recently allegations about Chris Pincher MP, who was forced to resign as deputy chief whip last week after being accused of drunkenly groping two men at a private members' club for Tories in central London, which he denies.
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, resigned first, saying in a statement that the Conservative Party is “bigger than any one individual”. “I regret that I can no longer continue in good conscience,” Mr Javid added after the prime minister apologised for appointing Mr Pincher to the whip's office in February despite being told of a sexual harassment complaint against the Tamworth MP in 2019.
Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, soon followed suit. Mr Sunak said “the public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously”, adding: “I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning.”
Despite winning a no-confidence vote in June, Boris Johnson has continued to face speculation about his long-term future after 148 Tory MPs voted against him. Even before the ballot, he was odds-on at 4/9 to leave No 10 according to Betfair Exchange. The list of runners and riders to replace Mr Johnson has lengthened in recent months, but there are several contenders should he eventually be forced out of Downing Street.
Penny Mourdant
Penny Mordaunt, the MP for Portsmouth North and international trade minister, and a key figure in the 2016 Leave campaign in the EU referendum, is now the favourite to replace Johnson on odds of 6/1.
Ms Mordaunt might be viewed as an outside bet but she is likely to attract support. Her recent work has included leading efforts to secure economic pacts with American states and she is considered a strong speaker and regarded as being on top of her brief in the Commons.
Rishi Sunak
The chancellor has seen his fortunes decline amid the fallout from revelations in The Independent about his family’s tax status.
But bookies have not fully turned against Mr Sunak, who remains in the top five MPs most likely to take over the reins from Mr Johnson, with odds of 10/1 with BetFair Exchange.
The 42-year-old was once a favourite, at least in part due to his pandemic payouts, but he has since been criticised for being slow to react to rising energy bills and not doing enough to help the poorest households.
Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, is on odds of 8/1 to take the Tory crown if Johnson calls it a day.
Mr Hunt, who has also served as foreign secretary, has been very visible in the media of late, giving interviews to a number of outlets, talking about his new book and the future of the Conservative Party. He recently warned his colleagues that the Tories have a "big mountain to climb" if they are to win the next general election following the Partygate scandal.
Mr Hunt, who came second to Mr Johnson in a 2019 leadership contest, refused to rule out another tilt at the top job but cautioned that it was not the right time for a leadership contest due to the war in Ukraine.
“But I would be very open with you that I don’t rule out a return in the future,” he added.
The prime minister is, according to reports, being encouraged by allies to ditch Mr Sunak and elevate Mr Hunt to chancellor in an effort to shore up his fragile leadership and prevent a Tory civil war.
Liz Truss
Liz Truss, long touted as a future leader, is on odds of 8/1.
The foreign secretary and MP for South West Norfolk saw her stock rise after building a reputation as someone who could get a job done, securing a series of mini trade deals during her tenure as international trade secretary.
“Fizz with Liz” had been a phrase associated with the foreign secretary amid reports earlier this year that she hosted MPs in her parliamentary office in a bid to schmooze possible backers.
Her threats to overwrite parts of the controversial Northern Ireland protocol as well as her sanctions response to Russia over Ukraine went down well with some Conservative backbenchers.
More recently, however, Downing Street has moved to distance itself from the foreign secretary's harsh rhetoric on the protocol and she has been criticised for what some have described as leadership posturing during a crisis.
Ben Wallace
Ben Wallace, the defence secretary who has been widely praised for his performance during Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, is in a three-way tie for second with Mr Hunt and Ms Truss on 8/1.
He has won admirers in Westminster for his straight-talking and straight-forward approach to politics, particularly among Tory MPs who pressed for the UK to increase its defence spending although cuts to the size of the army remain a cause for concern.
Mr Wallace, who served in the Scots Guards, remains a key voice in the UK’s response to Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine and this increased exposure could assist any leadership bid.
Tom Tugendhat
MP for Tonbridge and Malling and chair of the Foreign Affairs committee, Mr Tugendhat’s stock has steadily risen in recent weeks. He is on odds of 11/1.
In January, he became the first Tory MP to announce his intention to stand for leader should Mr Johnson leave office.
The former soldier said: “I think I’m making it pretty clear that I think that it’s up to all of us to put ourselves forward. And it’s up to the electorate, in the first case parliamentary colleagues, and in the second case the party, to choose.
“I think it’s a position of absolute integrity to say that of course you should offer yourself to the electorate if you think you can do it. Of course you should talk to colleagues and see if you can get a group together, and if you can get a group together you should go for it.”
Mr Tugendhat’s ambitions might not be supported by everyone in the party, but they could secure him a plum job in a future cabinet.
Nadhim Zahawi
Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary and MP for Stratford-on-Avon, is 12/1.
Sajid Javid
The former health secretary and Bromsgrove MP was on 19/1. His frontline political future was in doubt when he quit as chancellor in February 2020, just six months into the job, after No 10 told him to sack all of his advisers. But Mr Javid has bounced back since June 2021 as health secretary.
In the 2019 leadership contest, he proposed cutting the top rate of income tax and he was also reported last month to be among those against a windfall tax on oil and gas producers.
With some in the party calling for lower taxes, this could chime with Mr Javid’s instincts and help boost his chances.
Michael Gove
Michael Gove is currently priced at 22/1 to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister.
The levelling up secretary recently raised eyebrows during a bizarre BBC Breakfast interview when he used a Liverpudlian accent to suggest people should “calm down” over the lack of extra financial support before the autumn budget despite the mounting cost of living crisis.
Full list of favourites:
- Penny Mordaunt: 6/1
- Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
- Ben Wallace: 8/1
- Liz Truss: 8/1
- Rishi Sunak: 10/1
- Tom Tugendhat: 11/1
- NadhimZahawi: 12/1
