Corn prices have staged a respectable post-harvest rally of 59 cents since bottoming out in the low $4.30s earlier this winter, and July 2026 futures are now hovering near $4.87. That's not earth-shattering. Still, it's a solid lift from the doldrums corn traded in from September to December. The fundamental picture suggests there's room for more upside as we head toward planting season—especially with geopolitics throwing some curveballs that could tighten the supply side faster than the market expects.
The big picture on supplies still looks ample after last year's monster U.S. crop. USDA is calling for 2026/27 production around 15.8 billion bushels, down roughly 7% from 2025 on fewer planted acres—probably in the 94-million-acre range. Ending stocks will stay comfortable, maybe 1.8–2.1 billion bushels. On paper, that screams "well-supplied market." But here's where things get interesting: those numbers were built before the Strait of Hormuz mess really heated up.
