It’s about that time in the NFL calendar where fantasy football conversations start churning. OTAs are underway so we have our first video clips to overanalyze and news about how rookies are performing in their first taste of NFL action.
Drafts in re-draft leagues may not be until much closer to the season, but the analyzation will begin well before that.
The 49ers are a fascinating case study in fantasy football value vs. real football value. San Francisco has been one of the three or four best teams in the NFL in three of the last four seasons. Conversely, they’ve been a frustrating team for fantasy players because of the lack of week-to-week reliability of some players. Health has been part of the issue, but head coach Kyle Shanahan has played a role is well by putting some players in the proverbial dog house and not leaning heavily on one or two players each week.
That could change some this year, but the 49ers will still be a hard team to pin down fantasy-wise. They’re loaded with weapons on offense. While in some cases that makes them fun for fantasy, it could also be frustrating when they have a big day offensively with one of the stars not producing at a high clip.
With all of that in mind, we tried sifting through the fantasy value of the 49ers’ top players:
RB Christian McCaffrey
Breakdown: Volume won’t be an issue for McCaffrey. He’s the new engine of the 49ers’ offense and his dual-threat ability will keep him on the field regardless of game script. It’s been hard to nail down which 49ers running back to have in fantasy the last few years, but McCaffrey is the bonafide No. 1 option who led the team in rushing yards last season and tied for the team lead in touchdowns despite playing just 11 games with the club.
Verdict: Good to have, and probably worth the No. 1 overall pick.
WR Brandon Aiyuk
Breakdown: Aiyuk in no uncertain terms told reporters he’s ready for a breakout season. He cracked 1,000 yards last season for the first time while putting up a career-high eight touchdown catches. His ability to stretch the field vertically fit well with quarterback Brock Purdy’s ability to work inside the pocket and make throws down the field. There should be additional volume for Aiyuk this year, and there’s a real chance the 49ers finish higher than 26th in pass attempts.
Verdict: If there’s one 49ers WR to have on a fantasy roster, it’s Aiyuk. Samuel is still an effective player, but on a down-to-down basis the volume is going to be more consistent for No. 11. Fantasy Pros has Aiyuk as the WR34 and going 78th overall. It’s worth it to reach for him earlier than 7th or 8th round.
TE George Kittle
Breakdown: The days of 80-plus catches and 1,000 receiving yards are probably behind Kittle. Now he’s evolved into a player who’s productive on the field and in fantasy. Over the last two seasons he’s started finding the end zone more often. He had a career-high six in 2021, then backed that up with a career-high 11 last year. He’s also seen an uptick in red zone productivity with nine red zone TDs in 2021 and 2022 after posting just seven from 2017 to 2020. Volume may dip some for Kittle, but he’s still a very productive player.
Verdict: Lower volume should help Kittle stay healthier, and the weapons around him should allow him space to make the occasional big play. Good TE play is hard to find, so Kittle is worth a top 50 pick.
WR Deebo Samuel
Breakdown: Chances are we’ll never see Samuel reach the heights he hit in 2021 when he scored 14 total touchdowns and had 1,770 yards from scrimmage. Last season his numbers dropped dramatically with five total touchdowns and just 864 yards from scrimmage. He did miss four games, but even prior to an injury late in the season he was struggling to find room as a runner. There’ll be volume available for him and he’s still electric with the ball in his hands, teams are just working harder to take him out of games and the 49ers have more options to carry their offense.
Verdict: Fantasy Pros says his average draft position is WR16 and No. 37 overall. There’s too much risk to take him that early. If he slides into the 50th pick range it becomes worth it to bet on the upside.
49ers defense
Breakdown: The 49ers were one of the top defenses in the league last year. They gave up the fewest points, the fewest yards and they generated the second-most turnovers. San Francisco did lose defensive back Jimmie Ward, but he wasn’t known as a big generator of takeaways. The addition of Javon Hargrave on the defensive front should only help the 49ers’ already good defensive line. A better pass rush could also lead to more mistakes from quarterbacks which would help buoy those turnover numbers.
Verdict: San Francisco is one of a handful of defenses worth drafting and hanging onto instead of streaming week-to-week.
RB Elijah Mitchell
Breakdown: This is where things get difficult. There’s still some value in having the 49ers’ RB2 in the event McCaffrey is unavailable. Mitchell is still an excellent player who’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry with seven rushing touchdowns in 16 career games. A lighter workload should help mitigate some of the injury woes that have forced him to miss 18 games through his first two seasons.
Verdict: Worth a stash with a late pick, but keep a close eye on his health and be ready to snatch RB Jordan Mason or RB Tyrion Davis-Price off waivers.
QB Brock Purdy
Breakdown: Purdy’s breakout campaign might have just been a result of teams not having film on him. There are some issues in the pocket and bailing out too early that might haunt him as teams start keying on his tendencies. He also got away with a couple of near interceptions last season that could’ve dramatically changed the complexion of his year. Nevertheless, he played with a fearlessness that gained Shanahan’s trust. While that’s good in real life football, it’s hard to make a bet on Purdy in fantasy. He’s still returning from a torn UCL in his throwing elbow and there are still significant question marks about the offense and how he’ll look in Year 2.
Verdict: It’s probably not worth taking Purdy in one QB leagues. In deeper leagues a late-round pick makes sense to stash him, but there are just too many question marks to confidently bet on him as a fantasy option.
QB Trey Lance
Breakdown: Lance’s upside as a runner has made him an enticing fantasy pick the last couple seasons. Injuries derailed him in 2022 and now it appears the starting QB job is Purdy’s barring a setback in his recovery or some major leap from Lance. All the physical tools are there, but the next step for him is playing time, and the path to those necessary snaps is full of obstacles.
Verdict: Stay away unless the 49ers announce he’s the Week 1 starter. Then we can revisit.
QB Sam Darnold
Breakdown: The hope here is that Darnold rebuilds his career in a QB-friendly system like Shanahan’s. There’s all sorts of physical tools, but Darnold’s sporadic accuracy and penchant for turning the ball over make it hard to bank on a massive transformation. His playing time is tied to not only how he does vs. Lance, but also Purdy’s health.
Verdict: Stay away unless the 49ers announce he’s the Week 1 starter. Then we can revisit.
