Back in March, on a typically bright and cloudless day around the Albert Park Lake in Melbourne, sporting the most brimful of smiles, nobody embodied self-confidence and poise more than George Russell. Three months on from his friend, compatriot and rival Lando Norris claiming his first Formula 1 world championship with McLaren, it was now time for Mercedes’ internal star to take advantage of having the fastest car on the grid.
“I know what I need to do,” Russell firmly stated outside the Mercedes motorhome. “And I feel stronger mentally than ever before.” Three days later, Russell cruised to victory in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, exclaiming over team radio in his best Borat impression: “Very nice, very niiiiice. I like this car.”
That scene, that exuberance, that sense that a walk-in-the-park was in the offing in 2026, now feels like a lifetime ago. In 13 rounds since, Russell has won just one grand prix, in Austria in June. His 20-year-old Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli, meanwhile, has eight victories to his name, having claimed his first at round two in China.
Yet perhaps the most striking statistic of all, one of a damning nature for team Russell, is that with his last victory in Madrid a fortnight ago, Antonelli’s haul of eight victories this year is now higher than Russell’s career grand prix win tally, which stands at seven.
All told, it has been a chastening six months for the Briton.
“I’ve said this a few times this season: there’s been a few too many times this season I’ve been having to process situations,” Russell told The Independent and a group of British journalists at the last round in Madrid. “I’ve had a very up-and-down season; the performances haven’t been great. These races after the break have been clearly much better, not just the result but every lap of every session, I’ve been in the mix, feeling more comfortable in the car and things are clicking easier.
“But at the moment it still feels like nothing – in terms of the result – is going my way.”
The first indication a blip was becoming a problem came at round four in Miami. While mechanical issues and wretched luck scuppered his chances of victory in China and Japan, Russell felt the Florida street circuit did not suit his “smooth” driving style. He qualified fifth and finished fourth, while Antonelli claimed his third consecutive victory. In Canada a few weeks later, an enthralling squabble between the two Mercedes drivers ended in unfortunate circumstances for Russell after an engine failure forced his retirement.
Yet many assumed a return to the European swing – a phase of the calendar Antonelli flunked during his rookie year – would mark Russell's return to the top spot. Yet aside from that one win in Austria, it has been hard going: not only has he failed to claim critical victories, but he has missed out on a significant glut of points, with a 12th-place finish in Monaco and a retirement in Belgium. He has acknowledged his discomfort in the car, in contrast to Antonelli’s assuredness and all-out speed.
Post-summer break, Russell’s results read: third, second, fifth. Not disastrous, but not title-challenging, especially when you consider that second-place came at the Italian Grand Prix when race winner Antonelli started at the back of the grid. That Monza weekend arguably goes down as the toughest Sunday in Russell’s career to date.
To Baku this weekend then, the scene of Russell’s first serious confrontation with Max Verstappen back in 2023. Similarly to Norris 12 months ago when trailing McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri, the mild-mannered Russell now needs to flick a Verstappen-esque switch in his psyche, both on and off track.
Eighty-one points seems a near-insurmountable deficit to make up over nine rounds, which could become eight if Qatar and Abu Dhabi are cancelled and only replaced with Imola. The phrase ‘stranger things have happened’ springs to mind… only, in F1 terms, they haven’t.
"I'm going to keep fighting every single race until it's mathematically impossible," Russell stressed, ahead of first practice on Thursday morning, where the Briton went fastest by four-tenths. "But it doesn't change how I go about my job. I want to try and win every single race and put it on pole every single race. That's my goal.”
Mercedes are expecting a major upgrade when Malaysia makes its one-off return after nine years next week. Perhaps that can offer something fresh for the 28-year-old to work with. "That's what I'm working towards every single weekend, and what happens thereafter will be,” he said.
“And there's obviously a huge deficit, but it's not even really a consideration right now. It's just the performance is the biggest priority."
