Bristol Rovers' recent form has got Gasheads pondering what might be possible this season, but the statisticians are not convinced they are capable of a promotion charge.
Rovers have risen to ninth in League One after losing just one of their past 12 games, with back-to-back wins against Port Vale and Charlton Athletic taking them to within three points of the play-off places one game shy of the midway point of the season – albeit having played one or two matches more than some of the teams around them.
Confidence is high among Joey Barton's group and, while they are not getting ahead of themselves, they in a rare sweet spot in sport where they believe anything is possible.
However, the data experts at FiveThirtyEight believe a comfortable finish in mid-table is the likely outcome for the Gas this season. They have been given a seven per cent chance of making the top six and just a four per cent chance of being relegated – odds Gasheads gladly would have taken at the start of the season after stepping up from League Two.
But the reality of League One is there are several prestige clubs that have greater spending power and a January transfer window ahead of them to further solidify their promotion credentials.
The bookmakers, meanwhile, have Rovers at 12th in their ranking of teams to make the play-offs, with SkyBet offering 9/1, behind the likes of Port Vale (6/1) and Oxford United (13/2).
FiveThirtyEight's model is founded upon a formula that takes into account form, fixtures and squad values, with Sheffield Wednesday tipped to rise from third place to top spot by the end of the season, overtaking Ipswich Town and Plymouth Argyle.
Meanwhile, a gruelling second half of the campaign awaits the likes of Forest Green Rovers and Burton Albion. Here is how League One is predicted to finish by FiveThirtyEight...
- Sheffield Wednesday - 88 points
- Ipswich Town - 87 points
- Plymouth Argyle - 86 points
- Barnsley - 81 points
- Derby County - 80 points
- Bolton Wanderers - 72 points
- Peterborough United - 69 points
- Wycombe Wanderers - 69 points
- Portsmouth - 68 points
- Oxford United - 63 points
- Shrewsbury Town - 63 points
- Lincoln City - 62 points
Bristol Rovers - 62 points
Port Vale - 60 points
Charlton Athletic - 58 points
Fleetwood Town - 58 points
Exeter City - 56 points
Cheltenham Town - 54 points
MK Dons - 52 points
Accrington Stanley - 48 points
Cambridge United - 46 points
Burton Albion - 42 points
Forest Green Rovers - 41 points
Morecambe - 39 points
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