As a franchise, the Rockets are starting to arrive at an inflection point as Houston coasts through its hottest July on city record. At the moment, general manager Rafael Stone and the rest of the organization are watching the team’s young foundation currently play in Las Vegas.
Rookies Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, and TyTy Washington are playing with key second-year players such as Josh Christopher and Usman Garuba for a summer league roster that shows immense promise. The organization is holding its breath that these new pieces, in conjunction with existing young standouts such as Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Kevin Porter Jr., can bring more wins and defensive intensity than last season.
This is all happening through a fascinating organizational lens. Seemingly, the upcoming season is the last in which the Houston Rockets can truly afford to be amongst the worst in the NBA. After finishing with the league’s worst record in each of the past two seasons, 2023 will mark a transition point where Houston will finally be forced to change.
Beginning in 2024, the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade picks are due to be conveyed from Houston to the Thunder.
One of the worst trades in the organization’s history is set to rear its ugly head following the 2023 NBA offseason, since Oklahoma City will own Houston’s first-round draft selections outright in 2024 and 2026 (with light protections) and have a right to swap picks in 2025.
While Houston dodged the bullet of conveying its 2021 pick to the Thunder by securing the No. 2 overall selection for Green (which made the top-four protection kick in), it’s hard to envision the Rockets finding that type of lottery luck, again — and particularly not during years in which that Green-led core is likely to improve its on-court production.
The Westbrook trade would be talked about far more, if it wasn’t for one overriding circumstance. The importance piece of context is this: Even considering those obligations, it’s not as if Houston is devoid of future draft capital. The James Harden trade from early 2021 affords Stone and the rest of the organization the right to Brooklyn’s picks all the way through 2027. The apparent explosion of the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving core has left Houston in a beautiful position entering the next five years.
Going forward, Houston’s impetus to improve dramatically within the next 12 months and transition back to contention status raises interesting questions. When is the best time for the Rockets to capitalize off that Nets capital? Is patience or a parlay the best way forward?
There are sound arguments for both.
On one hand, the idea for Stone to stay put and allow head coach Stephen Silas the opportunity to develop his young core for another risk-free year is appealing. Green, Smith, Eason, Sengun, and Porter could be allowed to play together as one of the youngest starting lineups in the league and to develop chemistry without consequence. Players such as Christopher and Washington could settle into important bench roles while still leaving plenty of minutes for Silas to use elsewhere.
In all likelihood, the natural development of the young guys would organically produce one of the worst records in the league (again) and strong lottery odds in the 2023 NBA draft. That draft class could be one of the best in years and is headlined by 7-foot-2 French prospect Victor Wembanyama, along with some elite domestic prospects. Adding another rookie with star potential to the young core and carrying a ton of salary cap space into the 2023 offseason — along with having those Brooklyn picks for future use — creates many avenues for further growth.
Houston has historically been able to attract star talent, and their cap space combined with the Brooklyn capital would suggest they could land a disgruntled star to play alongside Green and Smith. As is often the case in the NBA, nobody ever truly knows who will be next to move.
The other option, though, is equally sound: Houston could pounce this summer and pursue an All-Star caliber talent.
If they are forced to trade Durant and Irving, the Nets would be in an odd position where they are currently unable to build their next contender through the draft, since any resulting high picks (from being bad) would convey to Houston. As things stand today, they are effectively forced to try and compete immediately, which is likely to result in a middling team built around perennially injured guard Ben Simmons.
The Rockets could change that calculus as a third-team trade partner, if they wanted to offer Brooklyn a tanking avenue. Returning some of those pick assets to the Nets could yield Houston with a high-level player to join that young core and potentially accelerate its winning timeline.
For example, Houston could perhaps parlay some of the swaps and selections into the rumored Durant-to-Phoenix interest, if the Rockets were interested in center Deandre Ayton or swingman Mikal Bridges. The Suns would still be paying the primary bill for Durant’s services, but returning some of Brooklyn’s capital could provide more long-term upside to the Nets than an Ayton-Simmons (or Bridges-Simmons) core.
Another potential target of much discussion is Toronto’s Scottie Barnes or OG Anunoby. The Raptors have by far and away the most potential asset capital to offer Brooklyn, should the Nets choose to disregard Durant’s wishes. This option could benefit Houston, as well.
While Brooklyn can regain the potential to tank and acquire a high draft pick to build around, the Rockets could acquire a small forward or center more talented than anyone at those positions on the current roster. That talent boost could make the transition to playing winning basketball a year from now a little bit easier. There’s also the argument that, while the core meshes, the potential for a high draft pick in 2023 would remain.
Caveats exist, of course. A player such as Barnes may command much of, if not all of, the Brooklyn capital, as compared to a restricted free agent like Ayton. Additionally, some of these trades could require an immediate contract extension for Houston to feel safe to participate. This opportunity cost of salary cap flexibility would have to be weighed by the organization to determine what works best for its future.
Regardless of how you slice it, the Rockets are in an excellent position heading into the 2022-23 campaign. There appears to be a strong young core in place, and multiple paths to improve the team should be available before Oklahoma City is due its Westbrook draft capital.
