Armenia and Azerbaijan have, for the time being, agreed to a tenuous cease-fire after six weeks of fighting over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. But it’s unlikely to be a long-term fix. While Baku is jubilant over its territorial gains, many Armenians reacted to the news with outrage, storming parliament and other government buildings to demand answers about a deal they feel amounts to betrayal. A peace settlement that satisfies both sides does not yet seem in sight.
Now, more than ever, a lasting peace settlement is of paramount importance. That’s largely because great powers’ involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh has raised the stakes of resolution: Russia and Turkey may have both helped broker the existing cease-fire, but it is uncertain whether their interests in Nagorno-Karabakh—and beyond—will continue to align. An unfinished peace in Nagorno-Karabakh arguably makes the current situation more, not less, dangerous; having been dragged into the hostilities, Russia and Turkey may sooner or later be pushed to face off against one another.
