On Wednesday, ESPN senior NFL insider Adam Schefter said the Chicago Bears are holding a lottery ticket—one that’ll be worth a small fortune for inquiring teams. And one of those inquiring teams will very likely be the quarterback-needy Carolina Panthers.
So, how much will it take for general manager Scott Fitterer and company to move up from No. 9 to that No. 1 spot in this year’s draft? Let’s take a look back at the most recent trade-ups to the top of the order in gauging a price.
2017 (Second overall pick)
Chicago Bears received: second overall pick
San Francisco 49ers received: third overall pick, third-round pick (No. 67), fourth-round pick (No. 111), 2018 third-round pick
Here’s an “I’m here so I don’t get fined” entry.
Being that the Bears only needed to move up literally one spot for ol’ Mitch Trubisky, they didn’t have to pay a “fortune” to the slick 49ers. The Panthers, on the other hand, would need to jump eight spots to get them to that first overall slot.
So although it’s interesting to look back on, we can throw this framework out the window.
2016 (First overall pick)
Los Angeles Rams received: first overall pick, fourth-round pick (No. 113), sixth-round pick (No. 177)
Tennessee Titans received: 15th overall pick, two second-round picks (No. 43 and No. 45), third-round pick (No. 76), 2017 first-round pick, 2017 third-round pick
Okay, now we’re getting a little warmer.
In one of the biggest leaps to the No. 1 pick in league history, the Rams forked over a pretty penny to get to Jared Goff. But being that they had two relatively high second-round picks to give up that year, the trade is a tad easier on the eyes for St. Louis—who probably saved themselves an extra first as a result.
2016 (Second overall pick)
Philadelphia Eagles received: second overall pick, 2017 conditional fifth-round pick
Cleveland Browns received: eighth overall pick, third-round pick (No. 77), fourth-round pick (No. 100), 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick
Of all such trade-ups over the previous 10 drafts, this one is closest by range.
The Eagles, who sat at No. 8, slid up for Carson Wentz by way of the Browns. And if this is what the Panthers would, more or less, have to give up for a shot at a Bryce Young or a CJ Stroud—then it doesn’t look too steep.
But, keep in mind, the Houston Texans—who will also be on the hunt for a quarterback—currently own 2023’s second overall selection. So there should be a tax on teams to jump them, in particular, for their pick of the entire litter.
2012 (Second overall pick)
Washington Redskins received: second overall pick
St. Louis Rams received: sixth overall pick, second-round pick (No. 39), 2013 first-round pick, 2014 first-round pick
And here’s the sexiest swap of the bunch.
While Chicago would probably love three first-rounders and a high second, Washington’s move for Robert Griffin III should come with an asterisk of sorts. Because if not for Andrew Luck, who was taken right before him, the Heisman Trophy winner would’ve been the most highly-regarded quarterback prospect in recent memory.
The 2023 class, while solid, doesn’t have a prospect close to that sort of hype.
