Almost three months since the entire MotoGP grid was last on track together, the first collective test of 2023 at Sepang invites observers to take certain things for granted. Ducati's superiority appears unquestionable, after its riders topped the times on all three days. But the test has also thrown up some unexpected elements, such as Yamaha's final day struggles that prompted criticism from its leading man Fabio Quartararo.
Autosport digs into the lessons learned in Malaysia ahead of the final all-important test at Portimao next month before the world championship proper begins two weeks later.
The Ducati Cup?
When considering the form shown by the Ducati GP22 from the middle of last season onwards, it would have been unexpected if the Borgo Panigale team led by Gigi Dall'Igna had made a mistake with the GP23. These three days of testing in Malaysia confirm that the bike has not only maintained the standard of performance that led Francesco Bagnaia to the 2022 title, but has improved it.
Aside from the cold hard evidence posed by the timesheets, with Luca Marini and Bagnaia leading the way courtesy of their chart-topping efforts on day three and seven of the eight Ducati bikes in the top nine, there are other indications of equal or greater concern for the rest.
Two of the clearest were Jorge Martin's emphatic assertion that the latest version is a clear step forward from the model he rode last year, and the ease with which Alex Marquez has adapted to a bike that makes his life "much easier than the Honda" he has struggled with until now. The younger Marquez brother recorded his best lap ever at Sepang on his fourth day in total on his new bike, including the one-day Valencia test at the end of last year.
"Either we do something or Ducati can finish in the top six of the championship," said Aprilia's Aleix Espargaro on Sunday, verbalising the general feeling of the paddock.
Yamaha in strife
At Yamaha in particular the alarm bells are ringing. The good vibes and confidence conveyed by Fabio Quartararo's gesture when he got off the M1 on Friday changed as the days went by. On Sunday, at the end of the tests, the 2021 world champion looked a little shaken, stunned by his lack of punch on new tyres and low fuel.
Undoubtedly, the bike has gained in top speed thanks to a new power unit which responds both in performance and reliability, the factor that led Yamaha to delay its planned introduction of an upgraded powerplant prior to last season. Quartararo insisted on the importance of this improvement in top speed, but also on the need for this step forward not to expose other shortcomings. Ending up 19th on Sunday when he went for a fast lap, just ahead of team-mate Franco Morbidelli, left him perplexed.
"When we put on new tyres it's a disaster, a nightmare," he said. "We are slow, a second behind, and the worst thing is that we don't know why."
Yamaha is facing 2023 with the intention of fine-tuning a very balanced prototype but with a lack of muscle compared to the Ducati. The strength of Yamaha's 'time attack', and the implications this will have for grid positions, will be even more decisive with the introduction of sprint races for this year. The problem that has emerged in recent days, if not resolved, could complicate the futures of its two riders still further.
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Honda: much ado about nothing
After starting the test with four different bikes at his disposal, Marc Marquez was discarding one by one and by Sunday afternoon was focusing his work on one of them. His problem was that the chosen bike has, roughly speaking, the same lack of traction that left Honda bruised after the worst year in its history in 2022. Given its urgent need for a reaction, that the best news of the weekend for the multi-champion is his physical condition is not good news.
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Marquez, who finished 10th in the standings and seven tenths off the pace after electing not to use soft rubber at the end of the final day, was quick to insist that he is doing his part. But he said that the time has come for HRC to give him some indication of hope, of which there is little sign at the moment.
"I'm happier with my physique than with the bike," said Marquez in a statement that suggests that he is running out of patience. "We chose a very similar direction to the one we took in Valencia, with the same problems. The time has come to solve them. With what we have, at best, we would fight to get into the top five."
With the majority of Honda's resources focused on Marquez, the comments from the rest of the Tokyo-based manufacturer's team lose some weight, especially given the apparent distance that separates them from their team leader. That is only logical considering that Joan Mir (12th) and Alex Rins (18th) arrive from Suzuki, and find in the Honda a completely different prototype.
"We are far from Ducati and Aprilia, and that's 12 bikes," Mir told Autosport.
Having show up at Sepang without a proposal that invites optimism after more than three months of work, much will have to change at Honda over the next month to turn its fortunes around in Portugal.
Aprilia, the best of the rest
Aprilia seems to be consolidating its position as the second power in the world championship, after Ducati. At least, that's what can be deduced from the stopwatch and the testimony of its riders. As was the trend last year, Aleix Espargaro was a little more restrained than Maverick Vinales. In any case, both acknowledged that, with what the RS-GP offers them, they are not enough to challenge for the title with Ducati, who are still one step ahead.
"I think we are just behind Ducati, but we still need to be able to stop the bike better and gain some power down low," explained Espargaro, sixth in the combined times, who is eagerly awaiting the final 'click' that the Noale-based firm has promised to give him on the final engine specification.
"With this year's Aprilia I can ride more naturally, and the feeling it gives me is that I have more speed," concluded Vinales, third fastest over the three days with a best effort a tenth and a half off Marini's benchmark.
KTM's frenzy
Judging by the plan set out by KTM CEO Stefan Pierer, in the sixth year since the RC16 burst onto the grid, one of the orange or red GasGas (Tech3) bikes should be fighting for the title in 2023. But that doesn't look likely this year given the disorientation of Brad Binder and Jack Miller, on whom most of the focus has been placed.
The Austrian manufacturer's new prototype aims to address three aspects of the previous model: improved lap speed for time trials, slightly easier overtaking and improved front tyre pressure management. On paper, the new engine with a different firing order should help in all of the above, even if it hasn't solved any of the questions so far. The fact that the fastest and happiest of the riders in the group is marque returnee Pol Espargaro (13th, nine tenths behind Marini), back after a two-year ordeal at Honda, is not the best indication for the Mattighofen riders.
"We have a lot of work ahead of us until Portimao," reflected KTM team manager Francesco Guidotti. "The problem is that we will have to spend some time there preparing for the first Grand Prix."
Concerns over pressure regulation
One of the changes in the technical regulations for 2023 will affect tyre pressures. Riding below Michelin's limit of 1.9 bar on the front tyre and 1.7 bar on the rear will risk penalties of lap cancellations in testing and even disqualification in the race. However, there has been uproar at Sepang because the data provided by some teams' measurement systems does not match that of the new official mandatory supplier (LDL Technology).
"The engineers have a month [until the test in Portugal] to understand why the information from the two sensors varies," said Aleix Espargaro.
"In the first two races there will be no penalties, but I think after that [the FIM] will realise that you can't apply this rule on the front compound, because it's dangerous," added Alex Marquez.
"Going a little bit lower [at the front] doesn't give you anything, and you know that, if you go over 2.2 bars, the chances of crashing go through the roof."
