Men’s college hoops is a burning house right now, and I’m just Childish Gambino returning with leftover pizza from a Super Bowl party.
What in the world happened?
Last time I checked (not literally), North Carolina was the preseason No. 1 team in the AP rankings. Kentucky was No. 4 and Duke was No. 7. The so-called blue bloods of the sport were still expected to be good. Even Villanova was ranked 16th.
So, I did what any self-respecting writer of sports betting content would do and attached myself to some of those giants. Among my conference championship picks were UNC, Kentucky and Kansas, each boasting top-10 national title odds at the time. Duke did as well.
Today, only No. 5 Kansas even has top-20 title odds, let alone a top-25 AP ranking. UNC, my pick to win it all, lost Monday for the fourth time in its last five games to fall to 8-7 in the ACC (16-10 overall).
College basketball has been flipped on its head. So much so that No. 23 NC State is the best team in North Carolina. Football powerhouse Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country for the first time in 20 years. Even Gonzaga, the preseason No. 2 team, matched its highest loss total since 2016-17 — with five games left in the regular season.
None of UNC, Duke (17-8, 8-6 ACC), Kentucky (16-9, 7-5 SEC) or Villanova (12-13, 6-8 Big East) even received a vote in the latest rankings, and nothing about it is a fluke. Villanova is objectively bad, and the other three don’t appear to be very good either. None have a KenPom rating better than 35.
We knew the retirements of coaching legends Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski and Jay Wright would usher in a new era of college basketball. I’m just not sure we knew it meant a potential changing of the guard. But is that actually what’s happening?
Maybe not. The “old” guard can certainly bounce back — even as early as this year. ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi currently has Duke as a 9-seed in the NCAA tournament, North Carolina among the last four in and Kentucky in his first four out. Any of those teams would be considered dangerous in March just off sheer talent alone. They still recruit well.
But what’s happening to them this season is worth monitoring because it opens the door for other teams to make some noise. The schools with the top three betting odds to win this year’s title, according to DraftKings, are all programs that have never won it before: Houston (+700), Purdue (+900) and Alabama (+900).
The Jayhawks could also swoop in and go back-to-back, but there’s a decent enough chance we’ll have an unfamiliar champion by season’s end.
