As the Democratic party licks its wounds and prepares for Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a growing chorus of commentators is urging the party to confront a historic shift in voting patterns, which has seen Latinos, the working class and Black men all shift rightwards in 2024.
But perhaps the cohort that offers the gravest warnings for the party’s future prospects is young men. In 2024, men aged between 18 and 29 turned out in force for Trump, with the Republican winning the demographic by 14 points, overturning a generational trend that has for decades seen young people favour left-leaning candidates.
Experts variously put it down to a backlash against the #MeToo movement, efforts to achieve gender equality and the siloing of entertainment and news sources, but Trump’s victory in the “manosphere” is just one part of an unprecedented phenomenon across the world, in which the politics of a single generation has split across the gender divide.
While votes are still being tabulated, last week’s election saw a chasm open up between the political preferences of 18- to 29-year-olds in America. Trump’s seismic win among young men was mirrored almost inversely by Kamala Harris’s huge, 18-point win among young women. Notably, that margin is more than double the gender gap in the overall electorate; Harris won female voters of all ages by just seven points.
In this regard the US is not unique; political polarisation between the genders has been growing among young people across the globe. In South Korea’s 2022 presidential election there was a difference of just a few points in voting preference between men and women in every age range, except those aged 18-29.
In Gen Z there was an almost 25-point difference when it came to voting for the conservative-leaning People’s Power party.
The same patterns play out elsewhere: in the 2024 UK general election, almost twice as many young women voted Green than young men did (23% to 12%). Conversely, young men were more likely to vote for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK (12% to 6%). Meanwhile in Germany, a sample of recent surveys showed men aged 18-29 were twice as likely to vote for the hard-right AfD than women in the same age range.
Despite performing below expectations in the 2023 Polish elections, the far-right Confederation – which opposed vaccine mandates and mass migration, and was sceptical on the climate crisis – saw its strongest support among 18-29-year-olds, the vast majority of whom were men.
The party’s leadership took an overtly misogynistic line, with one of its more prominent members, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, saying after the election that “women should not have the right to vote.”
Echo chambers and the erosion of shared experience
A backlash against gender equality is one of the universal drivers of the polarisation between young men and women around the world, says Dr Alice Evans, senior lecturer in the social science of development at King’s College.
“There is a growing concern among young men that maybe DEI [diversity, equity, and inclusion] is going too far,” she says, adding “some question if women’s gains are coming at the expense of them.”
A 2024 Ipsos study bears this out. Taking samples from across the world – including Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Turkey – researchers found that, when it comes to gender equality, those aged 18-29 displayed the largest differences of opinion between the sexes.
On the statement “a man who stays home to look after his children is less of a man”, 10% of baby boomer women and 11% of baby boomer men agreed. Among Gen Zs, however, there was an 11-point gap in opinion, 31% for men and 20% for women.
According to some polling, the phenomenon is as much about a rightward shift from men, as it is about a leftward move by women. In September, Gallup polled adults under 30 in the US, and found that women were moving left on a number of issues.
On issues such as the environment, gun control and access to abortion, Gen Z men and women had by far the largest gap in viewpoints.
The pattern repeats in surveys around the world, showing young men and women with historically huge divisions in attitudes – the question is why?
“It’s social media filter bubbles and cultural entrepreneurs,” says Evans, who has written about the issue at length.
Gen Z has grown up in a fractured media environment that has seen the erosion of shared cultural experiences. Evans gives an example from her own childhood in England: “We only had four TV channels, all my friends were just watching BBC news, The Simpsons or Friends. There was very little choice so everyone watched the same thing.”
Today though, media is consumed through smartphones and the choices across traditional platforms – as well as newer services such as Netflix, YouTube and TikTok – are nearly endless.
“People can self-select into their preferences,” says Evans, “then the corporate algorithm kicks in to keep you hooked … feeding you information that other users like you have liked.”
Its in these echo chambers that charismatic entrepreneurs thrive, says Evans.
Joe Rogan is one of the most popular podcasters on the planet – his programme tops the charts in the US, as well as Australia, the UK and Canada – but his audience is over 80% male, according to YouGov.
“You’re consuming this media, you’re listening to these perspectives, and whether it’s Joe Rogan or others, you come to trust them,” says Evans.
Donald Trump faced criticism for the apparent narrow focus of his election appearances, eschewing a number of traditional media outlets for interviews on podcasts hosted by Rogan, Logan Paul and Theo Von. But experts say it was a strategy that may have helped him lock in a voting demographic that traditionally eludes rightwing politicians.
“Young men are trying to understand their place in society that is rapidly evolving,” Daniel Cox, from the American Enterprise Institute told the BBC. “These are very real concerns and there’s a sense in the political realm that nobody’s advocating for them.”
Prior to the 2024 US election, Hasan Doğan Piker, a YouTuber and video game streamer, warned that the Democratic party was falling behind the Republicans when it came to dominance of these online spaces.
“If you’re a dude under the age of 30, and you have any hobbies, whether it be playing video games, working out or listening to a history podcast, every single facet of that is dominated by centre right … to Trumpian right,” he told the Pod Save America podcast.
The siloing of spaces, the erosion of shared experiences and resentment of gender equality efforts are all leading to huge, intractable problems that go beyond the latest election cycle.
Around the world, fertility rates are nose-diving, creating huge issues for economies as diverse as South Korea, Sweden and Australia. Governments across the globe have launched multi-pronged efforts to encourage couples to have children, with policies targeting childcare costs and housing shortages.
Experts say the erosion of socialisation between the genders is starting in school. According to the Japanese Association for Sex Education, just one in five boys at senior high school have had their first kiss – the lowest figure since the organisation conducted its first survey of sexual behaviour among young people in 1974.
But it’s in schools that the fightback against this growing isolation needs to begin, says Evans. It might feel like a drop in the ocean, but banning phones in schools and investing in local youth centres could help to turn the tide of polarisation.
“Phones are out competing personal contacts,” says Evans, but if young people spend more time with the opposite sex, become friends and form relationships, they will start to see just how much they could have in common.”
