Lebanon and the West Bank are not fighting each other. They are separate crises: in one, Israel is at war with Hezbollah; in the other, violence among Israeli settlers, soldiers and Palestinians keeps climbing. Neither territory produces meaningful volumes of crude, yet both are entangled in the wider showdown with Iran that shapes what the world pays for fuel. Quotes for Brent, the global benchmark, varied by contract on Monday: CNBC reported the front month at $107.34 in early Asian trading, Fortune had it at $104.46 by late morning in New York, and a December contract sat near $99 on Investing.com.
Israel's Lebanon Campaign Shows No Clear Exit
The current war traces back to March 2, when Hezbollah opened fire on Israel to back Iran after the U.S.-Israeli assault on Tehran began, Al Jazeera reported. Israel answered with heavy bombing and then a ground push its military described as "limited and targeted". By mid-March, the same report said, Lebanese authorities counted more than a million people uprooted. About 360,000 were still displaced in August, according to the UN refugee agency.
Israeli troops now hold roughly a fifth of Lebanese soil, based on the Council on Foreign Relations. A U.S.-brokered framework in June made any pullout depend on Hezbollah disarming, and the group turned it down. A truce announced on April 17 never stopped the shooting: on Sunday an Israeli helicopter struck a commercial center near Mayfadoun. Lebanon's health ministry put the toll since March 2 at 4,383 dead through September 10, and the real figure today is almost certainly higher.
West Bank Violence Is Running at a Record Pace
The occupied West Bank is worsening on its own track. The UN humanitarian office recorded 1,835 settler attacks last year, a number that has grown every year since 2023, and early 2026 averaged about 190 a month, a pace that would carry the total past 2,000. Nearly 700 Palestinians from nine communities were driven out in the first four months alone, the same source said, and by June more than 2,200 had been displaced for the year.
Israeli military operations have spread as well. UN monitors describe raids that once centered on the north now reaching central and southern governorates, including parts of the Jerusalem area. The casualty numbers depend on the yardstick. As of early September, the UN said 82 Palestinians had died at the hands of Israeli forces or settlers this year, 23 of them during settler attacks.
Iran's Network of Allies Links the Fronts
Both theaters connect to Iran's web of partners, and that is where the energy danger sits. Hormuz is an active war zone, not a hypothetical one. The International Maritime Organization has verified 80 attacks on merchant ships around the strait since February 28, killing at least 22 seafarers. Passage has thinned sharply: tracking data showed only a dozen commodity vessels crossing over one recent weekend, even as Saudi Arabia leaned harder on Gulf loadings. The waterway normally handles around one-fifth of global oil consumption.
The Houthis Now Threaten the Red Sea Workaround
The main detour is under pressure too. After sweeping down Yemen's Red Sea shoreline, Houthi forces took Mayun island (also called Perim), which sits inside the Bab el-Mandeb strait, on September 11. The group says ordinary shipping remains safe and that only vessels tied to Saudi Arabia face a blockade.
That matters because Saudi Arabia depends on its East-West pipeline to ship crude around Hormuz. Drone strikes forced a shutdown in mid-September, and the line restarted on September 22, with Riyadh aiming to return to about 4 million barrels a day on a system built for 7 million. By Monday, flows had reached at least 3.5 million barrels a day, about half of capacity.
Missing Barrels Show Up at the Pump
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Middle East production shut in by the disruption averaged 6.7 million barrels a day in August, up from 5.0 million in July. It expects constraints to last through the fourth quarter, with shut-ins averaging 5.7 million, and sees Brent averaging about $90 in the second half of the year, according to its September outlook. Current prices already sit above that mark.
Regional flows averaged about 17 million barrels a day in mid-September, roughly 6 million under the 2025 average, JPMorgan estimated in a September 18 note. With supply this tight, a single successful strike on a tanker or Gulf export terminal could quickly raise freight and insurance costs, which feed into airfares and shelf prices.
Diplomacy Offers Little Relief
Hopes of de-escalation faded after the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Trump had rejected Tehran's seven-day ceasefire offer and told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after November's midterm elections. Trump said publicly the next day that he was rejecting the deal, and oil jumped when Asian markets opened on Monday. A separate report last Thursday that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased reopening of Hormuz had only trimmed that day's gains.
Traders are being whipsawed: optimism about talks can drag crude lower within hours, and each new strike on shipping or energy sites can erase it. With Israeli troops entrenched in southern Lebanon, settler violence rising in the West Bank and Houthi forces astride the Red Sea, that volatility looks set to continue. For consumers far from the region, the practical result is lasting pressure on fuel, shipping and food costs for as long as none of these fronts quiets down.
