The Washington Post reported stunning news on Thursday — federal investigators believe they have a chargeable case against Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden.
Even more interestingly, they have felt that the case is sufficient to go to court for the past several months, according to the Post.
It’s problematic news for the president just one month before voters are set to determine control of the House and Senate in this year’s crucial midterm elections. At stake is Joe Biden’s ability to pass any meaningful policy-based legislation for the next two years.
There’s also the probability that whoever challenges Mr Biden — presuming he runs again in 2024 — will bring up the issue of his son in a more effective manner than did Donald Trump in 2020. That’s even given the likely possibility that it will be Mr Trump himself who runs again: Thursday’s news allows Republicans to easily refine their edge when attacking Mr Biden’s family personally.
But what does Thurdsay’s report from the Post really mean for Hunter Biden and his father’s Republican enemies, and where does this likely go from here?
What is Hunter accused of doing wrong?
Depends on who you ask. There are no federal or state charges against him yet, and the only news of what the Justice Department’s focus has been comes from leaks from the probe itself to news organisations like the Post.
Those leaks, while infuriating to the younger Mr Biden’s team, have indicated that investigators are honing in on two potential subjects: lying on a form used in the process of purchasing a firearm, and tax issues related to his revenues from overseas businesses.
It’s far short of everything Donald Trump and his Republican allies have accused him of committing during Mr Biden’s time as vice president and beyond. It’s also far short of everything we know he could be prosecuted for, given the numerous pictures and anecdotes of Hunter doing crack cocaine as part of a years-long addiction to the illegal narcotic.
But they remain serious felonies nonetheless and could result in Mr Biden’s son facing massive fines or even jail time should he be convicted of either.
What about those other accusations from the GOP?
The scope of the Post’s report does not even begin to touch on all the various crimes GOP politicians, including most notably Donald Trump, have laid at the feet of Hunter Biden for years.
Republicans have long alleged that a so-called “laptop from hell” — a computer thought to have been once owned by Hunter Biden — contains evidence that Mr Biden was involved in his son’s foreign business affairs as vice president. Separately, they’ve also allegd that those business practices themselves were illegitimate.
As a result, far-right members of the GOP like Marjorie Taylor Greene have alleged that the result has been Joe Biden being “blackmailed” over the contents of the laptop. Ms Greene personally has alleged that both Ukraine and Russia, two opposing sides of a brutal war in eastern Europe, are blackmailing the president.
Those claims of blackmail and a supposedly compromised president are Ms Greene’s rationale for five separate articles of impeachment she has filed since taking office.
What happens next?
If Mr Biden’s son is charged with a crime, it likely won’t happen before November, given the DOJ’s hesitance to make politically-charged moves before elections. It will likely come over the next two years, as Mr Biden prepares for a potential reelection bid in 2024 and braces for inevitable GOP attacks centred on his son’s troubles.
Besides the criminal penalties of being found guilty, Hunter Biden’s legal troubles could cost Mr Biden his trustworthy image ahead of an important reelection fight versus (most likely) a revenge-seeking Donald Trump, who will have had four years to refine the message that failed to land with voters in 2020 when he referred to Mr Biden’s family as a “criminal enterprise”.
Should the DoJ decide against charging Mr Biden’s son, the decision could have the adverse effect of enraging Mr Trump’s diehard supporters once again and further diminishing the independence of the Justice Department in the eyes of Republicans.
Complicating the issue for the agency is the FBI’s recent raid of Mar-a-Lago as part of an investigation into presidential records, including classified documents up to the “top secret” level. The investigation into Donald Trump’s supposed illegal retention of those documents has enraged Republicans and drawn accusations of political targeting.
The road ahead for the Justice Department remains fraught with political perils not just for the Biden family but for America’s federal law enforcement agencies themselves.
