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Darin Newsom

What Did USDA's Second First Look at 2025 US Planted Acres Show?

USDA United States

  • Much is made about USDA's acreage guesses each February, basically because it's the end of winter and there isn't anything meaningful left to talk about. 

  • The release of the latest acreage guesses are the second round, with the third seen in the end of March Prospective Pantings report. 

     

  • This time around, USDA actually moved to get in line with what markets have been showing us the past 6 months. Go figure. 

You might’ve heard Thursday kicks off the 2025 edition of USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum. I could propose a drinking game tied to the hullabaloo over these numbers, but I care about your livers and overall health. The reality is this will be the second first look at USDA’s 2025 crop guesses, the first being the baseline projections initially release last November. The spotlight this morning will be on US corn acres, with the most noise made by those who didn’t know to track the November soybean/December corn futures spread the past six months. Recall I’ve been updating you weekly, with Dec25 corn firmly positioning itself to buy acres away from Nov25 soybeans since September 1, 2024. (The argument could also be made Nov25 soybeans was doing all it could to NOT buy acres, in essence throwing the fight to Dec25 corn.)

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