The Green Bay Packers officially signed veteran defensive lineman Jarran Reed on Wednesday. What are the Packers getting in Reed, who played five seasons with the Seattle Seahawks and last season with the Kansas City Chiefs?
Reed is experienced (80 career starts) and typically available (missed only two games to injury in career, six more to suspension), suitable against the run at 6-3 and 313 pounds and capable of producing volume numbers as a pass-rusher while playing a high percentage of snaps almost every game.
If nothing else, Reed is going to give the Packers a defensive lineman who can be on the field on every down and in every situation and play at a capable level. He will join with Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry and TJ Slaton to give the Packers an improved four-deep defensive line.
Expecting Reed to be a consistent difference-maker might be asking too much.
The disruption numbers are there: Over the last six seasons, Reed has 169 total pressures and 128 total stops, per Pro Football Focus. He can make impact plays. But he’s somewhat of a hit-or-miss defender who produces volume stats more so because he’s on the field for a lot of snaps than pure ability.
Pass-rush win rate is a fine way of determining the quality of a player as a rusher. Last season, Reed’s pass-rush win rate was just 8.0 percent, which ranked 78th out of 83 qualifying defensive linemen in the NFL, per PFF.
He’s really never been a high win-rate rusher. Even in 2018, when he tallied 10.5 sacks and 50 pressures for the Seahawks, his pass-rush win rate was just 11.5. That’s lower than both Kenny Clark (16.3) and Dean Lowry (12.4) last season. He was on the field for almost 500 pass-rushing snaps.
Here are Reed’s pass-rush win rates over the last three seasons: 8.0, 8.5 and 6.0. The easy conclusion here: He doesn’t win as a pass-rusher a lot, but he’s disruptive when he does and he’ll get the numbers because he’s usually on the field.
Over the last two seasons alone, Reed played almost 1,600 total snaps, including over 1,000 as a pass-rusher. He’s played over 70 percent of the defense’s snaps in three of the last four seasons.
Reed does have four seasons with over 20 total pressures, and it won’t be surprising if he goes over that number with the Packers in 2022. Just don’t expect him to be collapsing the pocket on every other pass-rushing rep.
Playing next to Clark might help, but it’s worth noting that Reed wasn’t more productive or efficient as a rusher while playing next to Chris Jones in Kansas City last season.
However, Reed is almost certainly a major improvement over Tyler Lancaster or Jack Heflin as the fourth defensive lineman in Green Bay. His experience up front and ability to be on the field for most snaps every single week will be valuable. With Reed, Clark and Lowry, the Packers now have three defensive linemen who can be out there regardless of the situation.
And although Reed’s pass-rushing numbers on a per-down basis aren’t great, he has created disruption over his career and will make a handful of big plays for the Packers defense in 2022.
Green Bay signed Reed to a one-year deal. Don’t expect the contract to be lucrative, given the fact that Reed only produced 2.5 sacks over 17 games while playing on a one-year, $5.5 million deal for the Chiefs last season.
The Packers defensive front is getting better by adding Reed. How much better is up for debate. He’s going to play a lot of snaps and likely give the Packers more flash plays than Lancaster or Heflin would be capable of providing next season.
