Another poll has shown the Conservatives close to electoral oblivion in Wales, with the governing party at Westminster projected to win just two of the 40 existing seats.
The results of the poll undertaken by Beaufort Research are similar to those of a YouGov poll released on St David’s Day. Looking at voting intentions if there were a General Election tomorrow, Beaufort’s poll shows Labour getting 52% of the vote in Wales, the Conservatives 19%, Plaid Cymru 15%, the Green Party 5%, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats both on 4% and other parties on 1%.
Based on the polling figures and assuming a uniform swing - with no allowances for local variations - the results for a Westminster election on present boundaries with 40 seats in Wales would see Labour winning 34, the Conservatives two (Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire) and Plaid Cymru the four it held at the last election (Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Ceredigion and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr). At the last Westminster election in 2019, Labour won 22 seats and the Conservatives 14. If the next election is fought as is planned on a new political map of Wales with just 32 seats, the Tories may face an even bigger problem.
