Good morning.
The streets of London are riddled with “crime and desperation”. “Ulez enforcers dressed in black faces covered with masks” terrorise the city “at the beck and call of their Labour mayor master”. Campaign ads don’t get much more deranged than the one released by the Conservative party on Twitter/X to attack Sadiq Khan, in an attempt to bolster support for Susan Hall’s run at the capital’s mayoralty. An initial upload was taken down because it used footage of a panicked crowd in a New York City subway station to criticise Khan’s record on crime. (For a more nuanced analysis on crime figures in London, read this Guardian fact check.) The bizarre narration in an American accent is still present and correct.
Few words can capture how strange the advert is. The black and white blurry footage and dramatic music have been widely mocked, even by X’s own factchecking function, but the cartoonish portrayal of Khan and the misinformation peppered throughout could have serious consequences, especially given that Khan has become a target for far-right conspiracy theorists.
Khan said the advert was “staggering” and “unpatriotic”, adding that Conservatives were trying to “hoodwink” Londoners by running such a negative campaign.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke with the Guardian’s acting deputy political editor Peter Walker about the buildup to the 2 May election. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Conservatives | Two Tory ministers have quit the government in a double blow to Rishi Sunak. Robert Halfon unexpectedly announced he would step down as education minister and would be leaving the Commons at the next general election. The armed forces minister James Heappey confirmed he had left his role at the Ministry of Defence in advance of standing down. Sunak carried out a mini-reshuffle of the junior ministerial ranks as a result of the departures.
US news | At least six people were confirmed dead after the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland snapped and collapsed when a container ship hit one of its pylons. Officials said up to 20 people and several vehicles had fallen into the river. The US president, Joe Biden, said all indications were of a “terrible accident”.
Israel-Gaza war | 130 parliamentarians have signed a letter to the foreign secretary, David Cameron, to ban arms sales to Israel, amid signs that the Netanyahu government intends to ignore the UN security council resolution passed on Monday calling on all sides to commit to a ceasefire.
Water industry | More than 4m hours of raw sewage discharges poured into rivers and seas last year, a 129% increase on the previous 12 months, new figures are expected to reveal.
NHS | Public satisfaction with the NHS has fallen to its lowest ever level, with long delays to access care the biggest source of deepening frustration, a study has shown. Just 24% of people across England, Scotland and Wales are satisfied with the health service.
In depth: Hall is largely unknown but could Labour lose?
As of yet, there is no explanation from CCHQ for the editorial decision-making behind the advert. It could have been a cynical ploy to create a shocking political moment aimed at getting people talking about their candidate, Susan Hall, who is still struggling to build a real profile and is lagging far behind in the polls.
The other explanation is simpler: it could have just been a bad call, Peter Walker says. “It’s such a strange thing, as the governing party, to say the capital city, that they want to show as a big hub for investment, travel and tourism, is such a crime-ridden hellhole that you wouldn’t want to go to.” If this is how it starts, what does it mean for the next six weeks of campaigning?
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Labour’s campaign
Sadiq Khan has been mayor for eight years. He first took office – winning an election, contrary to the ad, which claims he “seized power” – weeks before Britain voted to leave the European Union. It was a different time in British politics and, after two terms, Khan’s platform, like that of any incumbent leader, is going to have to be “promising more of the same, only better”, Peter says.
Khan has pledged to generate the “greatest council home-building drive in a generation”, vowing to complete 40,000 new homes by 2030. And, despite serious attacks from the Conservatives, he has defended his Ulez clean air zone policy. He has also recently announced that youth services in the city will be receiving £30m in funding. To appeal to the sceptics, Khan has categorically ruled out road charges while he is mayor, despite rumours that he planned to instate them by 2026, an olive branch to suburban voters who are on the fence about his tenure. And there are sure to be further promises in the run up to polling day.
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The Conservative campaign
Tory candidate Hall’s campaign has not gotten off to the best start. “It’s fair to say that most of London still doesn’t know who she is,” Peter says. Hall is largely known for her anti-cycling rhetoric (though she has said she is not against cycling or cyclists), offensive activity on social media, and her support for former (and perhaps soon to be again) US president Donald Trump.
Hall was never the Conservatives’ first choice, but the shortlist for candidates all fell flat: Daniel Korski was pulled from the race after allegations of groping and Mozammel Hossain had virtually no prior political experience.
The lacklustre start last summer – which saw the party complain that an Evening Standard front page after her selection had the “whiff of misogyny” – has dogged Hall. So far “her campaign has been slightly invisible”, Peter says. “She doesn’t really do public events – even at her campaign launch there was no media. I asked Labour what she’s doing, and they basically said she just doorknocks in outer suburbs and talks about crime.” Her website has been updated only twice since October, Peter adds, and there seems to be little support from central government (except for the ad, which I am sure Hall is grateful for).
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Could Labour lose?
Even though Khan is pulling ahead significantly in the polls, there are a lot of jitters in his camp. It’s important to note that some of the anxiety will come down to expectations management, especially given his relatively narrow win in 2021 against Shaun Bailey, whom he was polling ahead of consistently before the election. Khan has been under sustained pressure because of the cost of living crisis, the housing crisis, his party’s stance on the war in Gaza and the increasing cost of public transportation.
On top of these policy issues, Khan is also contending with a new voting system. Previously, voters could put in first and second preference candidates, but the Conservative national government has changed it to first past the post, in a move many predict will make it harder for Labour in London. “For years Labour would win because lots of people would vote Green and Lib Dem and have their second preference for Labour. It’s conceivable that [if there are] a lot of Green and Lib Dem votes, Susan Hall could win with 40% of the vote or even less than that,” Peter says. In response to this possibility, Labour has been asking those who might be inclined to vote for a third party to “lend” their vote to Khan, in an attempt to mitigate the damage.
The other spanner in the works also comes courtesy of the Westminster Conservative government. Mandatory voter ID is being used for the first time in a mayoral election, a rule that disproportionately affects poor people, people of colour and those living in temporary accommodation, all groups that tend to skew Labour in elections.
With all of these factors and caveats taken into account, a Khan victory is still most likely, but it’s not inevitable.
The Conservatives are already projected to lose badly at the local elections, which are on the same day as the mayoralties. If a seismic local election loss coincides with mayoral losses in the West Midlands, for instance, or the Tees Valley, it could reignite a push to oust Rishi Sunak, Peter says. But whatever the outcome, the race in London will offer a concrete indicator of how Labour can expect to do in the forthcoming general election.
What else we’ve been reading
To many they are an innocent garment worn for pottering around the garden, but to others they are a sign of American imperialism. Alan Titchmarsh’s jeans have become the target of North Korean television censors. Stuart Heritage explores this and more in a great piece about TV’s curious relationship with censorship – from the Chinese ruling that bans Doctor Who to Australian panic about Peppa Pig. Nazia Parveen, acting deputy editor, newsletters
Kenneth Roth lays out how Israel’s destruction of Unrwa is part of its “starvation strategy” in Gaza. “By starving Palestinians in Gaza and destroying much of the housing and infrastructure, Netanyahu seems to want to render Gaza unlivable,” writes Roth. Nimo
New Yorker writer Vinson Cunningham’s debut novel, Great Expectations, will presumably draw from his experience as a former campaign staffer for Obama. In this review for the Atlantic, Danielle Amir Jackson says Cunningham’s novel is a clear-eyed look at the early Obama years, taking the reader back to a time when many thought the nation’s first Black president had an answer for every American ailment. Nazia
Chris McGreal spoke with film-maker Dan Reed about his new documentary that follows two sets of parents affected by conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’s claim that the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting never happened. Jones, writes Reed, “is a particular type of monster that has emerged from the internet age” who has monetised the grief of parents. “And that is a monstrous, cruel thing to do.” Nimo
For those moments when you overindulge, Joan Collins comes to the rescue. The 90-year-old screen superstar has shared her no-fail hangover plan with the world – and it is surprisingly simple. Nazia
Sport
Football | Wales have suffered Euro 2024 heartbreak after a 0-0 finish was followed by Poland winning the resulting penalty shootout.
Cricket | Maia Bouchier defied injury to hit 91 as England Women outpowered New Zealand to win the fourth T20 international in Wellington by 47 runs and clinch the series.
Football | Sarina Wiegman has described relationships between female footballers and their coaches as unhealthy, inappropriate and unsafe. The England manager was reacting to events at the WSL club Leicester, where the head coach, Willie Kirk, is the subject of an internal investigation after an allegation of a relationship with a player.
The front pages
The Guardian splashes on “CBI stops staff discussing sexual misconduct and bullying claims” while the Financial Times has “Trump’s social media group TMTG jumps 50% on Nasdaq market debut”. “Heartbreak bridge” – that’s the Metro on the bridge collapse in Baltimore. The Daily Telegraph has a Baltimore picture across the full width of the front page, though its splash is “Churches ‘undermining asylum system’”; similar picture treatment in the Times where the lead story is “Just 1 in 4 say NHS is working”. “Chemical attacker given asylum despite failing Christianity test” rails the Daily Express – the Daily Mail calls it the “Clapham chemical attacker asylum fiasco”. “Traitors – the Brits fighting for Putin” is touted as an “Exclusive” by the Daily Mirror. “State pension age may rise to 68 sooner to pay for triple lock pledge” says the i.
Today in Focus
The assisted dying debate: Paola’s story
Paola Marra ended her life last week in Switzerland after being told by doctors she could not be guaranteed a pain-free death from bowel cancer in the coming months. Robert Booth reports
Cartoon of the day | Rebecca Hendin
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
How do you save a critically endangered fungus? This week, mycologists in Scotland will attempt to transplant bodies of willow gloves (above) to three woodlands in England to promote growth and resilience, and hopefully prevent their extinction.
Matt Wainhouse, fungi and lichen senior specialist for Natural England, said of the mission: “We have a responsibility to all species in this country to ensure they have a future and fungi are no different. This is a species that is hanging on by a thread.”
Chris Knowles, the lead mycologist in the project, adds: “A lot of people ask, why put all this effort, time and money into rescuing it? It seems to be the right thing to do … It’s a stunning, almost unique-looking fungus with an incredibly niche lifestyle. It is so interesting, exciting and not fully understood yet that it would be a terrible thing to lose.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
