A weather system is set to move over southern Texas and Mexico through this week, bringing vast quantities of rain. The National Hurricane Center noted a tropical disturbance in the south-west Gulf of Mexico that has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next seven days. This potential tropical depression, essentially an area of low pressure, may be in a spot where the environmental conditions are good for its gradual development, and could end up moving towards hurricane status.
But even if it does not turn into a hurricane, heavy rain is expected to affect southern Texas and Mexico. Southern Texas may experience up to 100mm (3.9in) of rainfall on Wednesday through to Friday, and some Mexican states bordering the gulf may have up to 150mm. Rainfall totals of this magnitude, especially within such a small time frame, can cause catastrophic, life-threatening flooding.
In Europe, the Iberian peninsula looks set to bear the brunt of further heavy rain and low temperatures this week. Northern Portugal and Spain has a climate daily average of between 1mm and 3mm of rain for the time of year. However, with the jet stream located a lot further south at present, and driving another area of low pressure into the peninsula, some forecast models are suggesting more than 40mm of rain could fall within 12 hours today with a yellow weather warning in place covering the north-west of Spain for A Coruña, in the province of Galicia.
As well as the very wet weather, temperatures are set to fall well below the average for the time of year. Some parts of central Spain and Portugal could experience temperatures about 15C below the average for the time of year, with daytime maximums struggling to reach the high teens celsius on Tuesday and Wednesday. The cooler conditions are expected to remain through to the weekend.
In the eastern Mediterranean there is a stark contrast in temperature compared with the west. Temperatures in many Balkan countries are likely to soar to about 40C (104F) on Thursday and Friday, more than 12C above average for the time of year. Even the overnight minimum temperatures in many places are likely to stay in the mid to high 20s celsius, with this period expected to be the first summer heatwave of 2024 after quite a cool start for much of the European continent.
