It’s been billed as a battle between two desperate sides.
Wales and Australia each need a victory in Cardiff on Saturday amid hugely challenging spells that have left their coaches under pressure.
Questions are being asked about Wayne Pivac after the loss to Georgia and a woeful run of results this year, while his Wallaby counterpart Dave Rennie is also under scrutiny heading into a game that could see Australia finish 2022 with their worst set of results in a calendar year in the professional era.
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Oh, and Rennie also has a casualty list that rivals the 7th Cavalry’s after the afternoon session at Little Bighorn back in the day.
Wales are also missing players, of course but not as many. How do the two sides compare?
We take a look.
Leigh Halfpenny 7 v 7 Tom Wright
It’s a return to the Test arena after 16 months away for Halfpenny, who deserves immense credit for battling back from the injury in the summer of last year that threatened to end his career. A month shy of his 34th birthday, he still brings a lot to the table, not least his outstanding positional play, his courage under the high ball and his top-class kicking game.
His opponent doesn’t have anything like the experience of the Wales player at full-back, having played most of his rugby on the wing, but he’s rapid and combative and won’t give up, the hallmark of the Australian rugby player.
Alex Cuthbert 6 v 7 Jordan Petaia
Wales have kept belief with Cuthbert even though he wasn’t at his best against Georgia, with his yellow card proving costly. It is assumed his aerial skills have helped his case, but he could do with a strong performance to end the series.
Not many Wallabies outshone Petaia after he came on as an early sub against Ireland. He’s quick and skilful and competitive in the air; Wales will give him space at their peril.
George North 8 v 8 Len Ikitau
A clash of styles, with each player good at what they do.
North has generally had a decent series, powerful with ball in hands and hard-hitting in defence. He missed a few too many tackles against Georgia, but he was also the one runner Wales had who worried the eastern Europeans.
He’ll need to be alert against Ikitau, mind, with the Brumbies man boasting explosive footwork and the ability to cut a defensive line thanks to the angles he runs. He showed against Ireland last time out he’s also a high-class defender.
Joe Hawkins 6 v 7 Reece Hodge
Hawkins has a relatively modest rating as he is unproven in a Test environment. In fact, he’s unproven in senior rugby as yet, albeit the signs are promising with the 20-year-old boasting power and nice skills, especially in respect of his passing, while he can also kick a ball. His challenge will be to adapt to the pace of the game in his first international.
At least he won’t be facing the monstrous Samu Kerevi, who is injured. Instead, he’ll be up against a useful utility man in Hodge, a player who has operated at wing, full-back, centre and fly-half for Australia. He can boot the ball further than some people go on holidays.
Rio Dyer 6 v 7 Mark Nawaqanitawase
Two bright young prospects, each of whom will be desperate to make a mark. Nawaqanitawase performed well on his debut against Italy and followed it up with a strong display against Ireland. The raw and athletic wing is confident enough to look for ball and when he gets it he’s dangerous. He’s also good in the air and, on this tour, he’s been one of Australia’s standouts.
Dyer has also made a good start to his Test career. He’s rapid, is hungry for work and can turn half-chances into tries.
Gareth Anscombe 7 v 6 Ben Donaldson
Anscombe has been in-and-out with his form, with injuries not helping, but he has a lot of experience and the ability to put a stamp on a game.
Ex-Australia U20s man Donaldson has potential, but the Wallabies have started four other players ahead of the Waratahs playmaker at No. 10 this season and his confidence might have taken a jolt after he missed a conversion that would have won the tourists the game in the final seconds against Italy recently. This is his first Test start, so Wales will want to test his temperament.
Tomos Williams 7 v 6 Jake Gordon
Wales showed his true quality in the win over Argentina, with the scrum-half alert from start to finish and outplaying his opposite number. When he’s in that kind of form he’s the class act Cardiff supporters know he can be. If he wasn’t quite at that level against Georgia, a big performance this weekend would round off a fine series for him.
Wales will look to him to dominate as he did against the Pumas.
Gordon can kick a ball and has a decent service. He’s also been around a while, but he hasn’t been at his best on this tour.
Gareth Thomas 7 v 7 Allan Alaalatoa
A good battle in prospect here, with players in form. Not only did Alaalatoa scrummage well against Ireland, he also carried strongly and made a double-figure haul of tackles. Without their hard-working and highly impressive tighthead, the Wallabies would not have finished within touching distance of the team who are currently ranked number one in the world.
But let’s hear it for Thomas, too. After a quiet start to the autumn, the Wales No. 1 showed up well against Argentina and banged in a big scrummaging and tackling shift against Georgia. He could be important to Wales this weekend.
Ken Owens 7 v 6 Falua Fainga’a
Owens remains capable of summoning a strong performance to underline why he’s been so important to Wales over the years. The odd arrow missed the target against Georgia but his work around the field was typically unyielding. On a good day, he can be priceless to Pivac’s team.
Fainga’a is no stranger to indiscipline, having picked up four yellow cards on the Test and Super Rugby scene over the past two years, and his lineout throwing isn’t always as accurate as it could be, but he contributes a lot of physicality.
Dillon Lewis 6 v 7 James Slipper
Slipper used to be viewed as a scrummaging weak link, but he’s amassed so much experience over the years that such a barb has been forgotten. He had a terrific game in Dublin against Ireland, tackling everything that moved and offering himself as a carrier. His effort was the very embodiment of leading from the front.
Lewis has had a steady series for Wales, holding his own in the scrums and catching the eye around the field.
Adam Beard 6 v 7 Nick Frost
The game will be something of a novelty for Beard as he’ll be facing someone he’ll literally have to look up to in the 6ft 9in Frost.
The Australian is a fine player as well. He sprang to prominence at the World Rugby U20 Championship in 2019 by collecting a lineout throw with two hands before taking off on a 75-metre run to the line for an extraordinary try.
The big man has impressed on this tour, causing France, Scotland and Ireland major problems at the lineout. If Wales’ set-piece radar goes haywire, he’s good enough to have a field day.
Wales could do with Beard operating at full tilt. There were encouraging signs from the Osprey against Argentina, but he didn’t impose himself on Georgia. Against a strong opponent, he will need to be at his best.
Alun Wyn Jones 7 v 6 Cadeyrn Neville
There’s no Will Skelton this week, but the Wallabies are still able to field a lump in Neville at 6ft 8in and 19st 5lb. The ex-rower is renowned for being physical and having a big engine, but he doesn’t exactly take great form into this one after a quiet effort against Ireland.
The assumption is Jones will be desperate to bang in a big performance.
Emboldened by Tendai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira’s tweet calling on him to retire, a lot of people have waded into him since the New Zealand game, not all of them fairly. Jones will want to respond. The match will tell us much about where he’s at.
Jac Morgan 7 v 6 Jed Holloway
Holloway is 6ft 5in and 18st 8lb, giving him a significant height and weight advantage over Morgan, and he is nailing down his role Australia’s hard-grafting blindside. He is unflashy but that doesn’t mean he is ineffective.
On form, maybe there’s a case for giving Morgan an eight, but he is still new to Test rugby and learning the ropes. But he’s been an unqualified success over the two games he’s played in this series. He’s immensely committed as a tackler and good over the ball, while he’s also improved his carrying game. Australia may not know much about him but by the final whistle on Saturday that should have changed.
Justin Tipuric 8 v 6 Fraser McReight
Just the one outing for McReight previously on this trip, but the Wallabies have had Michael Hooper in their squad and most opensides in world rugby would have to play second fiddle to him. McReight had a solid game in defeat against Italy.
Tipuric is a vastly experienced and multi-skilled seven who can do everything. The captain will be as disappointed as anyone with the way results have gone this autumn, and will want to end the campaign by reminding us of his quality.
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Taulupe Faletau 9 v 7 Langi Gleeson
“The guy’s a physical freak. He’s a powerful runner, he can hit hard and he can play for 80 minutes.” So reckoned former USA and Waratahs hooker James Hilterbrand of Gleeson earlier this year.
The then 20-year-old was faster than any of his Super Rugby team-mates and throwing big numbers around in the gym. Young, athletic and powerful, then. Where do Australia find these people?
But the youngster is up against one of the best No. 8s in the world in Faletau, a player who has seen it all and pretty much done it all over 11 years in international rugby. Saturday is his 100th Test appearance and the probability is he’ll want to mark it in style. It’s not often he plays below expectations.
Replacements: Wales 6 v 6 Australia
Ryan Elias will bring industry late on and Tomas Francis, making an overdue return, should ensure there are no repeats of the scrummaging calamities that unfolded against Georgia, while Josh Adams and Rhys Priestland are also proven Test operators. There’s no major power carrier in the back five of the pack to come on and blast holes in a tiring opposition defence, though.
Australia are down to bare bones. But back rower Pete Samu had a wonderful game against the All Blacks in Melbourne in September, Noah Lolesio was unlucky not to start at fly-half in some eyes and Jock Campell is a dangerous runner if given space.
Totals: Wales 110, Australia 106
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