It now looks like the Republican party has a 59% chance of winning control over the Senate, according to the final FiveThirtyEight aggregate polling, which is weighted for pollster accuracy. Currently, the Senate is evenly divided, and Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote gives the Democrats control. And up until recently, it seemed like the upper chamber of Congress would stay in the hands of the Democrats. In fact, in late September, FiveThirtyEight gave the GOP only a 29% chance of gaining control with at least 51 seats. Clearly, a lot has changed since then.
On the House side, Republicans have a much higher projected 84% chance of gaining control. This is a significant increase from September, when that number was as low as 68% — but of course, that was still a pretty healthy number for Republicans. Most pundits and politicians alike presumed the House would be taken by the Republicans in the midterms. The Democrats currently have a five-seat edge in the 435-seat chamber.
