VLADIMIR Putin’s forces are continuing to struggle with “extremely low morale” on the battlefield in Ukraine, US military experts said on Thursday.
Despite promises from President Putin and his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to improve “horrible conditions” for Russia’s troops, the Institute for the Study of War, cited reports which suggest the Kremlin’s forces are not ready for a winter offensive.
The Russian President admitted earlier this week that the situation in Ukraine was “extremely complicated” - the second time this month that he has publicly acknowledged that his invasion could drag on.
The Kremlin’s forces have suffered tens of thousands of casualties since the war started in February, forcing President Putin to call up 300,000 more troops.
But morale has plunged along with the winter temperatures as Ukraine’s forces have pushed Russia back in the south and the east of Ukraine.
In its latest update on the war, the Washington-based ISW cited examples of poor morale including a brigade refusing to fight and soldiers’ concerns over friendly fire. The ISW reported:
*An open-source intelligence aggregator which amplified a report from a Russian volunteer concluding that Russian forces are completely unprepared for a winter Ukrainian counteroffensive.
*The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) published an intercepted phone call in which a Russian soldier told his mother that Russian friendly fire is more dangerous to Russian soldiers than Ukrainian forces.
*A mobilised soldier describing graphic deaths of fellow soldiers, heavy losses, a lack of food, and the generally poor emotional state of deployed soldiers.
*An independent Russian news outlet stating on December 20 that the entirety of the Russian 127th Reconnaissance Brigade (military unit 67606) refused to participate in the war in Ukraine due to heavy losses.
The ISW’s analysis could not be independently verified.
It came after Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelensky travelled to Washington on Wednesday - his first foreign trip since the invasion started - to appeal for continued US support in his country’s fight against Russia.
US President Joe Biden has pledged a further £1.7bn of financial aid and pledged to provide its Patriot missile defence system to help protect Ukraine’s critical infrastructure from Russian air attacks, which have been targeted energy and water supplies in recent weeks.
Amid fears of a new Russian offensive, former Nato General-Secretary Lord Robertson said that President Putin was desperately trying to keep Russian public opinion on side.
He told Times Radio Russia’s military commanders know the war is not going according to plan.
“They know only too well, how badly they're doing on the battlefield, and how well the Ukrainians are doing as well,” he said.
“So President Putin is desperately trying to keep public opinion on his side in Russia because he knows that without that public support his own position is in danger.”
Earlier this week the Russian leader travelled to Belarus for talks with President Alexander Lukashenko, stoking concerns that the two countries may join forces to launch a new attack from the north of Ukraine.
But in its daily intelligence briefing Britain’s military intelligence chiefs said Belarusian forces were helping to train the thousands of new Russian conscripts called up to bolster President Putin’s war effort.
The Ministry of Defence said: “Although Russia and Belarus have an extensive background of military co-operation, the training of mobilised Russian personnel by Belarusians represents a role reversal.
“Belarusian forces have traditionally been considered by Russia as inferior to Russian forces and their employment as trainers is an indication of overstretch within the Russian military system.”
Britain, the US, Ukraine and their allies are fighting an information war against Russia so their military briefings need to be treated with caution, though are far more believable than the propaganda issued by the Kremlin.
Speaking also on Times Radio on Thursday morning, Ukraine’s former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said President Putin’s goal was still to conquer Ukraine.
“He definitely hasn’t changed his ultimate goal,” he said. “And his ultimate goal is very clear, to take over Ukraine, to undermine Europe and to undermine the free world.
“So if he managed to actually grab the military necessary to launch another large scale offensive against Ukraine, either from Belarus or from Russia, he will do it, he will do it. I have no doubts.”
