Torn apart and rewired by Donald Trump's historic criminal conviction, the 2024 presidential campaign moved into uncharted territory Friday with all eyes on how the two main protagonists navigate the dangers. The conviction of the Republican frontrunner is a stunning development in an already unorthodox presidential election with profound implications for the justice system and perhaps US democracy itself.
The guilty verdict on Thursday by a New York jury in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial makes Donald Trump the first former US president ever to be convicted of a crime. He would be setting another, even more startling precedent if he wins the presidential election on November 5 and replaces Joe Biden in the White House.
Trump wasted no time in shifting from courtroom to campaign mode.
"I am a political prisoner!" he announced immediately after the guilty verdicts landed Thursday on all 34 charges.
The Republican politician is scheduled to make public remarks on Friday from his signature New York property, Trump Tower.
In addition to the New York case, he faces three far more serious criminal indictments over his attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden and hoarding of top-secret documents at his home in Florida.
Those cases, however, are not likely to go to trial before the November election.
The criminal conviction does not bar Trump from his continuing his White House run, even in the unlikely event that Judge Juan Merchan sentences him to prison.
Sentencing was set for July 11 – right before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump is due to receive the party's formal nomination to face Biden in the election.
'No one is above the law'
The challenge now will be for Biden to extract political gain for Trump's historic criminal conviction but in such a way that he avoids fueling Trump supporters' belief that the prosecution itself was political.
"In New York today, we saw that no one is above the law," Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler said in a statement.
"But today's verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box."
The White House was even less keen to get its hands dirty after the former occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue was convicted on Thursday.
"We respect the rule of law, and have no additional comment," Ian Sams, White House Counsel's Office spokesperson, said in a curt statement.
From Biden himself there was no comment on Thursday.
As president, Biden is keen to avoid giving ammunition to Republicans who claim he is meddling in the justice system.
Now he will have to decide whether Trump's conviction changes the calculus.
Biden has a busy public schedule on Friday, including talks with the Belgian prime minister and a celebration for NFL Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, which will offer frequent opportunities for him to make remarks to journalists.
Verdict will 'backfire'
For another candidate in another time, a criminal conviction might doom a presidential run, but Trump’s political career has endured through two impeachments, allegations of sexual abuse, investigations into everything from potential ties to Russia to plotting to overturn an election, and personally salacious storylines, including the emergence of a recording in which he boasted about grabbing women’s genitals.
The case's general allegations have also been known to voters for years and, while tawdry, are widely seen as less grievous than the allegations he faces in three other cases that charge him with subverting American democracy and mishandling national security secrets.
According to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polls earlier this year, 57% of respondents who planned to vote for Trump said they would do so even if he were convicted of a felony. About 13% of his supporters said they would not vote for him in that case and 29% said they weren't sure.
Robert F. Kennedy, who is running as an independent in the presidential race, predicted on X that the New York trial would "backfire."
But Keith Gaddie, a political analyst and professor at Texas Christian University, said the political impact of the shocking events has yet to be determined.
"It probably doesn't move a lot of votes, but in particular states with particular swing votes, it could matter around the margins. So in particularly tight races, it can tip things back from one direction to the other," he said.
Trump supporters call for riots and violent retribution
The former president's supporters reacted angrily to the verdict on pro-Trump websites with calls for riots, revolution and violent retribution.
On Trump-aligned websites and the former president's own Truth Social platform, Patriots.Win and the Gateway Pundit, a Reuters investigation found messages that included calls for attacks on jurors, the execution of Justice Merchan, or outright civil war and armed insurrection.
“Someone in NY with nothing to lose needs to take care of Merchan,” wrote one commentator on Patriots.Win. “Hopefully he gets met with illegals with a machete,” the post said in reference to illegal immigrants.
On Gateway Pundit, one poster suggested shooting liberals after the verdict. “Time to start capping some leftys,” said the post. “This cannot be fixed by voting."
Threats of violence and intimidating rhetoric soared after Trump lost the 2020 election and falsely claimed the vote was stolen. As he campaigns for a second White House term, Trump has baselessly cast the judges and prosecutors in his trials as corrupt tools of the Biden administration, intent on sabotaging his White House bid.
Trump continued his attacks online after the verdict. On Truth Social, he called Merchan “HIGHLY CONFLICTED” and criticised his jury instructions as unfair. One commentator responded by posting a picture of a hangman's platform and a noose with the caption: “TREASONOUS MOBSTER OF THE JUSTICES SYSTEM!!”
Jacob Ware, a co-author of the book “God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America”, said the violent language used by Trump’s followers was testament to the former president’s “ironclad ability to mobilise more extreme supporters to action, both at the ballot box and through violence.”
“Until and unless he accepts the process, the extremist reaction to his legal troubles will be militant,” said Ware, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
A spokesperson for Truth Social said, “It’s hard to believe that Reuters, once a respected news service, has fallen so low as to publish such a manipulative, false, defamatory and transparently stupid article as this one purely out of political spite.”
All three sites have policies against violent language, and some of the posts were later removed. Representatives of Patriots.Win and Gateway Pundit did not immediately return requests for comment. A Trump spokesperson also did not respond to an email seeking comment.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP and Reuters)
