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The Conversation
Politics
Anthony Pickles, Lecturer in Social Anthropology and International Development, University of East Anglia

US midterms: why gambling markets often predict elections more accurately than polls

Polls Vs betting on who will win control of Congress. Andychi/Shutterstock

This year’s US midterms are on a razor’s edge.

In the summer it appeared the US supreme court’s ruling on abortion and some legislative successes – most notably Build Back Better, a post-COVID infrastructure and social policy package – benefited the Democrats. It was believed they would overturn the long-held pattern of the president’s party losing seats two years after election. But as autumn set in, the tide turned, with economic pains and crime rates thought to be fuelling a Republican resurgence.

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