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Politics
Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL

US election: as the first Republican primary looms, a Trump win looks inevitable – but who comes second matters

Former president Donald Trump has pitched himself as the inevitable Republican nominee for the White House in 2024. So much so that he’s already floating potential picks for his cabinet.

The first Republican (GOP) primary in the country, the Iowa caucuses, scheduled for January 15 2024, could prove Trump right, or (less likely) open the door for a challenger.

Polling during December in Iowa showed Trump far ahead of the other Republican candidates with 45% of the vote, trailed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis at 18% and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at 15%. That’s almost certainly too much ground to make up.

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