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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Daniel Keane

US election 2024 poll tracker: Who is ahead - Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could hardly be closer with less than two weeks to go before the US election.

The latest surveys have given Ms Harris a narrow national advantage, though the result is tied in several key swing states.

Americans will go to the polls on November 5 for what is likely to be one of the closest votes in US election history.

The Standard has all the latest news from the national polls, as well as key swing states, below.

All of the polling averages we have used were compiled by FiveThirtyEight, which is part of American news network ABC. Data was collected from individual polls carried out nationally and in battleground states by various different companies.

This article will be updated every day until the election.

National polls

Ms Harris retains a small 1.4 per cent lead over Mr Trump in national polls, according to analysis by FiveThirtyEight.

A total of 48.1 per cent of Americans indicated they would vote for Ms Harris as of October 28, compared to 46.7 per cent for Trump.

Trump has never polled above Ms Harris nationally, but the Democrat has never increased her lead above 3.7 per cent since the announcement that would replace Joe Biden in the presidential race.

Meanwhile Trump’s lead has increased very slightly since dipping as low as 43.3 per cent in early August.

National polls provide a relatively accurate picture of a candidate’s popularity, but they are not necessarily a good indication of who will win the race.

This is because the US uses an electoral college system, in which the number of votes given to each state roughly corresponds to the size of its population.

A candidate must secure 270 votes out of 538 in order to win.

Favourability

As of October 28, a total of 46.4 per cent of Americans had a favourable view of Ms Harris, while 47.8 per cent had an unfavourable view.

Her favourability has skyrocketed since the announcement that she would run for President. On July 14, just a third (36.5 per cent) of Americans had a favourable view of the Vice President.

Meanwhile, Trump’s favourability has dipped at various points on the campaign trail.

On October 28, just 43.4 per cent of Americans had a favourable view of Trump and 52.1 per cent had an unfavourable view of Trump.

The number of Americans who have an unfavourable view of Trump peaked at 53.9 per cent back in May.

Swing states

The US election will be won and lost in a series of key states that are central to achieving the required number of electoral college votes.

These states could conceivably be won by either Republicans or Democrats.

In 2020, Joe Biden triumphed over Trump by winning Pennsylvania back from the Republicans.

There are seven swing states in total: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Neither candidate has a decisive lead in any of them.

Pennsylvania is the biggest electoral prize of all the battleground states, with 19 electoral votes up for grabs. Polling gives Trump a lead of 0.3 per cent as of October 28, his first since Harris entered the campaign in August.

Georgia is worth 16 electoral college votes. Trump leads in the state by just 1.5 per cent, according to the latest polling.

The Democrats have not held the lead in Georgia since early September.

North Carolina is also a significant state, with 16 electoral votes. Trump has a very slim lead of 1.3 per cent.

A total of 15 electoral votes are up for grabs in Michigan, where Ms Harris leads by 0.4 per cent.

In Arizona, which carries 11 votes, Trump holds a lead of 1.8 per cent.

Ten votes are available in Wisconsin, where Ms Harris has a lead of 0.2 per cent.

Nevada, with six votes, is also in play and Mr Trump has a lead of 0.2 per cent.

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