The US-China summit in Beijing that starts today may become a contest of Donald Trump's improvisational prowess and Xi Jinping's long-eyed view. The main idea is to keep their uneasy peace going. Because the alternative is worse, and both recognise the fact.
But within that space, the two leaders will test each other's limits. If Trump is 'the action officer for the China relationship' unencumbered by process or deep expertise, Xi will come prepared with a game plan worked out in detail by diplomats with extensive knowledge of the US. The Chinese don't leave anything to chance.
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Trump's 2-day visit will take place as Chinese commentators once again debate whether the US is in decline, this time more confident than they were perhaps in 2008 when the global financial crisis gripped the western world and Beijing first felt economic power shifting in its favour. This time, the Chinese have a new data point - the US is increasingly compelled to act alone because Trump and his advisers seem averse to consulting allies and partners.
The summit's backdrop is the US-Israel war against Iran, a war Trump wanted wrapped up before flying to Beijing. It would have given him a two-for-two advantage against China, with both Venezuelan and Iranian oil out of Chinese reach. But he will fly with Hormuz under Iran's control and an uncertain ceasefire in place.
As a former US official said, the value of US deterrence in Asia goes down every day the strait is closed. And the Chinese know that US allies and partners in Asia can feel it. Beijing holds more cards and no elections, while Trump has few arrows and discontented voters.
The US does enter the summit with a relatively weak hand. The Iran war is proving to be a harder test, US war stocks are thinning and military assets had to be shifted from the Indo-Pacific to West Asia, an alarming development for many Asian countries. Additionally, Trump has underplayed one plank of US policy on China - competition - and seems to be overplaying the other - cooperation.
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Politically awkward as it might be for Trump to visit in the middle of a war and for Xi to host him as Iran, China's closest partner in West Asia, is under attack, both leaders recognise the need to be on talking terms. Soaring oil prices and a possible global recession is in neither party's interest.
Trump's eagerness for a China summit is not a secret, even if it means ignoring continuing military exchanges and project that the ceasefire is holding, with peace proposals going back and forth. Meanwhile, Iran's demands (control of Hormuz, unfreezing of assets before nuclear negotiations, no concession on missile programme) have grown sharper, and tested Trump's resolve not to renew attacks.
But what do the two summiteers want from each other? In short, the US wants what's being called the Four B's: sell more Boeing planes, beef and beans of the soy kind, and create a 'Board of Trade' to manage differences. China wants Three T's: continued tariff relief, unhindered technology, and no trouble on Taiwan.
If 2025 was about showy moves and brutal countermoves - at one point, US tariffs were as high as 145%, prompting China to choke critical minerals' supply - this year may be more like accommodation, but on Chinese terms. No word if the two will discuss how to 'improve' China's economic model of killing manufacturing bases across the world with subsidised exports and collecting a trade surplus of $1.2 tn.
It seems Trump and Xi are talking about a deal to allow China to invest $1 tn in the US to build factories. Conservatives and liberals are alarmed. They say the idea undermines Trump's own logic of rebuilding domestic industry and reviving the manufacturing base. Oren Cass, chief economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank, thinks it would be 'an unforced error of world-historic proportions'.
Trump seems to have overlooked the memo about Chinese ops inside the US over the past three decades - from stealing software source code to genetically modified corn seeds - Chinese operatives have been caught too many times to count. On Tuesday, former mayor of Arcadia, California, Eileen Wang pleaded guilty of having 'secretly served the interests of the Chinese government'.
But Xi has shown he can escalate, find new pain points and up his regulatory game against US companies. China's new aggressive posture includes cracking down on companies trying to shift supply chains, a strategic aim of the rest of the world to reduce dependence on China.
Finally, Xi and aides will push hard to soften the US position on Taiwan. Any shift/reframing by Trump in the 'one-China' policy will be closely watched in all capitals. Under the existing policy, the US takes no official position on Taiwan's sovereignty, but does not accept China's claim over the island. It also supplies arms to Taipei for self-defence without supporting the cause of Taiwan's independence.
The point is ambiguity. Last year, Trump approved the largest weapons sales to the island worth $11 bn. Another package worth $14 bn is in the pipeline. Xi would want some course correction.
Every Asian country, especially India, will be watching closely and listening carefully. Because what happens in Beijing won't stay in Beijing. It will affect all spheres of influence.
