As tensions mount in the Middle East, geopolitical barriers are undergoing a recalibration, with powerful players shaping their stances and strategies. The United States, a seminal actor in this unfolding drama, is actively trying to balance the safety of commercial shipping, considering its potential impact on the global economy, against a desire to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from escalating and imposing unwanted strains.
As proxy wars continue, the Houthis are increasingly being viewed as defenders of the Palestinian cause, challenging the Israeli incursion. Yet this narrative is delicately balanced against concerns of commercial threats and risks posed by the Israel-Hamas conflict to the wider world.
U.S. officials now believe that Iran, a key influencer in the region, is carefully scaling its response to Israel's movements in Gaza, allowing their proxy groups to instigate attacks to a certain threshold. This strategic delineation eases the possibility of a counteraction targeting Iran directly.
Meanwhile, the U.S. administration exhibits confidence in its ability to deal with Houthi attacks. The American defense system has managed to shoot down a significant number of one-way attack drones from the group. The Houthis' homegrown ballistic missiles, though somewhat imprecise in their targeted trajectory, and the slightly more accurate homegrown cruise missiles, pose a rising challenge. However, the question of whether these missiles possess the capacity to down a ship remains ambiguous.
In the current scenario, the Houthis are likely to resort to a swarm tactic, deploying several one-way attack drones to confuse and hopefully overwhelm U.S. air defenses. This method, however, yielded no success in the latest encounter.
The pressing question before the Biden administration now is to determine the threshold when the risk to commercial shipping and to its own forces becomes significant enough to warrant a response.
Simultaneously, in an effort to limit the devastation caused by Israel's ground invasion into Gaza, U.S. officials are urging Israel to enter a low-intensity, more strategic phase of operations. They believe this would particularly target Hamas leadership, resulting in lesser civilian casualties. The timeline for this shift, though, remains shrouded in ambiguity.
