When Newin Chidchob, a highly respected figure in the Bhumjaithai Party, called for parties to reconcile their differences ahead of the next election, many were sceptical.
The unity card is inconsistent with reality and a pipe dream, some critics said.
Mr Newin, who single-handedly built the Buriram United football empire, is also a political veteran, and his party is said by many to have the best chance of leading the next government.
"We must outgrow this crippling political division. The country cannot move on with this us-versus-them attitude," he said.
Unity call a tactic
His call to mend fences, however, may be more tactical than genuine as it could work to boost the chances of Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul capturing the premiership after the next poll set for May 7, according to Jatuporn Prompan, co-leader of the so-called Kana Lomruam Prachachon (Melting Pot Group), who used to lead the mass red-shirt protests.
Mr Jatuporn said Bhumjaithai is the least internally "problematic" of all parties looking to contest the next election, with a management style that has made it relatively stable, freeing it up to stay focused on the poll battle ahead.
Mr Newin's reconciliation call, which reinforces a long-held narrative that there is always a permanent foe in politics, may sound akin to extending an olive branch, Mr Jatuporn said. "It could also be interpreted as a bombshell," he added.
Any party which rejects such an initiative would stand to be criticised as sowing conflict. Conversely, a party which takes the initiative on board could be branded as unprincipled, especially by its own supporters.
All that is needed to form the next government is 126 MPs or more, from any of the parties, combining forces with all 250 senators to push for a pre-selected candidate to be their choice of prime minister.
Mr Jatuporn predicts the current coalition bloc of parties will stick together and probably return to power, despite the many defections that are occurring at present.
In his view, the so-called pro-democratic side, led by the main opposition Pheu Thai Party and the Move Forward Party (MFP), is also suffering from disharmony.
It would not be easy for Pheu Thai, which Mr Jatuporn said is likely to emerge as the biggest party in the next poll, and the MFP to come together to form a government.
"The MFP's conditions are a bitter pill for Pheu Thai to swallow," he said, referring to the MFP's insistence on amending Section 112 of the Criminal Code, better-known as the lese majeste law.
Other prospects, such as the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) pairing up with Pheu Thai or Bhumjaithai with the Pheu Thai, are even harder to imagine.
At the end of the day, Mr Jatuporn added, people would find it unacceptable for the parties they support to forfeit their ideology and join in a coalition line-up with other parties which are far apart in their political stance.
A case in point is the Democrats and Pheu Thai. The parties have never been in the same government since the days of Pheu Thai's forbearers, first when it was incarnated as the Thai Rak Thai Party and later as the People's Power Party. Both of which were dissolved for electoral fraud.
Mr Jatuporn said election campaigns are expected to be particularly intense in the constituency-rich Northeast, a battleground region, between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai.
The intensity may be heightened by verbal attacks so vile that they could close all doors on the prospect of the parties forming a government.
By contrast, the current coalition parties are generally on speaking terms despite occasional friction.
Mr Jatuporn also agreed Bhumjaithai could secure the spot as the second or third largest party, making it the nucleus of the next government, assuming it can join other parties in the coalition line-up.
That would follow in the footsteps of the PPRP which was the second largest party behind Pheu Thai in the previous 2019 election and still managed to build a coalition.
But Mr Anutin's path to the premiership is far from rosy. He will need to win the support of the senators who were hand-picked by the coup-maker National Council for Peace and order, Mr Jatuporn said.
Critics have accused the Senate of being loyal to the "Three Por" generals -- Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the PPRP Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Interior Minister Gen Anupong Paojinda.
If Gen Prayut remains adamant about seeking a return to the premiership in the next poll, Mr Anutin might have a hard time getting the Senate on his side during the vote for prime minister in parliament, he said.
"Unless the Three Por generals declare they're leaving the stage, the possibility of Mr Anutin (becoming prime minister) may be slim," he said.
Bhumjaithai as boss
Meanwhile, Witthaya Kaewparadai, the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, said Mr Newin's reconciliation remark leaves the door open for Bhumjaithai to form a government with any party.The Bhumjaithai do not intend to end up as an opposition party.
Establishing a government essentially involves deals being brokered to allocate cabinet posts to the satisfaction of coalition partners, he said.
Mr Witthaya also refused to rule out Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai joining forces, saying the past is history.
Even though Mr Newin's faction, which later grew into Bhumjaithai, withdrew from the People's Power Party and switched its support to the Democrats to form a new government with Abhisit Vejjajiva as prime minister in 2008, Bhumjaithai has since evolved as a party in its own right and Mr Newin may think the hostility, he received from disowning the People's Power Party is well and truly buried.
Uncertain prospects
Olarn Tinbangtiew, a lecturer at the faculty of political science and law, Burapha University, said Mr Newin's unity pledge may reflect Bhumjaithai's attempt to set an agenda for the election campaign.
While the reconciliation suggested by Mr Newin may be ambitious, no parties have dismissed it outright.
This could mean the parties are unsure how they will perform in the next poll and they recognise the need to rely on the Senate in a vote for a prime minister, a process that invariably decides what parties will be in the government.
"The parties are learning to be more flexible," he said.
Even the MFP, perceived to be unyielding in its stance not to work in the same government as parties with ties to the coup-makers, has spelled out only two parties -- the PPRP and the UTN -- it will not associate with under any conditions.
If the UTN, which Gen Prayut will join as a member and is likely to nominate him as its prime ministerial candidate, wins 25 or 30 MP seats and succeeds in forming the government, Bhumjaithai is likely to step aside and let Gen Prayut return as prime minister with the support of the Senate.
But if the UTN fails to capture at least 25 MP seats, the threshold for nominating a prime ministerial candidate, the next government could be comprised mainly of the UTN, the PPRP and Bhumjaithai with Mr Anutin as prime minister.
The third formula is a government made up of Pheu Thai, the PPRP and Bhumjaithai, according to Mr Olarn.
'Zero-foe' policy
Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University's political science faculty, meanwhile, found Mr Newin's reconciliation talk unsurprising, given Bhumjaithai's "zero-foes" mantra.
Many zealous supporters do not want their parties to soften their ideology. They voted for parties which are clear on where they stand on the political divide, which may not be helpful to the unity call.
He said he believed no party will gain enough MP seats to lead a government in its own right. Pheu Thai and Bhumjajthai could be in for a close race under the two-ballot election system. Some parties might undercut the votes of larger parties from which they broke away.
"It's going to be quite complicated putting together a government," he said.
