Donald Trump is widely expected to be hit with his third indictment of the year this week over his attempts to overturn the result of the 2020 US presidential election and his role in the ensuing Capitol riot of 6 January 2021.
Mr Trump took to Truth Social last Tuesday (18 July) to gripe to his followers about receiving a letter from Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith informing him that he is the target of a grand jury investigation, adding to his ever-mounting legal woes at a time when he is attempting to secure the Republican Party’s backing to be its candidate for the White House in 2024.
The development comes after he was arraigned in New York on 4 April over the alleged misrepresentation of business records to conceal hush money payments during the 2016 campaign and again in Florida on 13 June over the alleged mishandling of classified documents belonging to the US government in the aftermath of his presidency.
Mr Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing and, despite these setbacks, his popularity with his supporters remains largely undimmed: he leads the field in the quest for the GOP nomination to challenge Joe Biden and has turned adversity to his advantage by raising campaign funds off the back of his insistence that he is really the victim of political persecution by his enemies and a Justice Department “weaponised” against him by the Biden administration.
What will the charges be?
The events of 6 January 2021 are well known: a mob composed of thousands of Trump supporters and members of notorious far-right groups laid siege to the US Capitol Building in Washington DC in an attempt to stop a joint session of Congress formally certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election in Mr Biden’s favour.
Mr Trump and his inner circle had insisted the vote had been “stolen” by a vast nationwide Democratic conspiracy – a claim that was comprehensively debunked in numerous courts cases across the United States.
When Mr Trump’s call for his Vice President Mike Pence to stop the certification went unanswered, the enraged crowd – whipped up by a rally speech from their champion, who urged them to “fight like hell” – crashed through security barriers and stormed the legislative complex in scenes that shocked the world.
Five people – including a police officer – died as a result of the chaos and more than 150 law enforcement officers were injured in violent clashes over the course of several hours before the situation could be brought under control.
Mr Pence and lawmakers who had criticised the Trump movement – including Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Mitt Romney – came uncomfortably close to being confronted by the insurrectionists, some of whom had made overt threats against them.
Some of the mob had made direct threats against certain lawmakers— (AP)
Mr Trump was subsequently impeached for a historic second time, hundreds of people were charged over their actions that day and the matter was extensively investigated by a House select committee, which staged a series of televised hearings between June and October 2022 before publishing a lengthy report in December that referred Mr Trump to the Justice Department with a view to possible charges.
Since then, Special Counsel Smith has been investigating Mr Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and has informed the former president that he is the target of a grand jury investigation, inviting him to testify last week to no avail.
Criminal charges are now widely expected to follow, although it is currently unclear as to what precisely they will amount to.
The House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack concluded in its final report by saying there was evidence on which to charge Mr Trump with inciting or aiding an insurrection, obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the United States and conspiracy to make a false statement.
However, the letter sent to Mr Trump about the grand jury probe reportedly only listed three federal statutes that could constitute charges against him.
The statutes mentioned in the letter, according to several reports, are conspiracy to commit offence or to defraud the United States, deprivation of rights under color of law and tampering with a witness, victim or informant.
When would a trial take place?
We are a long way from that prospect just now but the idea of a former president facing trial while campaigning for a fresh term in the White House is unprecedented.
Judge Aileen Cannon, presiding over the classified documents case in Florida, did announce last week that the trial in that case will take place on 20 May 2024, so it is reasonable to assume one relating to January 6 would likely have to take place after that date.
By next May, Mr Trump could well find himself both the Republican nominee for president and facing at least two criminal trials, which would be a baffling scenario in its own right and one made all the stranger should he manage to deny Mr Biden a second term in the Oval Office and thus inherit the power to order the Justice Department not to challenge any appeal he might make to a hypothetical future conviction.
How will the situation impact his 2024 chances?
In addition to Mr Smith’s pursuit of both the Capitol riot case and the classified documents affair, Mr Trump also has Alvin Bragg’s business records indictment to contend with, as well as the latest defamation lawsuit brought by E Jean Carroll over his denial that he sexually assaulted her in a department store dressing room in 1996.
What’s more, he might soon be facing yet another indictment courtesy of Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, Georgia, who is currently investigating his apparent attempt to influence state officials in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election while the vote count was ongoing in that crucial swing state.
The outgoing-president was caught on tape exerting pressure on Georgia’s Republican secretary of state Brad Raffensperger to help him “find” the additional 11,760 ballots he needed to keep the Peach State red, a scandal veteran Washington Post journalist Carl Bernstein was moved to describe as “worse than Watergate”.
Brad Raffensperger— (AP)
Any one of these scandals has the potential to weaken Mr Trump’s appeal to American voters, who might well feel exhausted by the endless swirl of allegations surrounding the former commander-in-chief.
But, so far, his conservative base has remained doggedly loyal to his cause, accepting his political persecution narrative, turning up for rallies, buying merchandise and placing him at least 30 points ahead of the likes of Mr Pence, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie and Tim Scott in the polls.
An awful lot can and will happen before the GOP chooses its nominee but Mr Trump’s movement has so far withstood every stress test to which it has been subjected and remained unwavering in its support for the former Apprentice host and luxury property magnate.
How will Mr Trump’s political opponents react?
Mr Biden and his administration are unlikely to gloat in public about Mr Trump’s numerous travails, preferring instead to applaud the justice system in action in low key fashion so as not to appear triumphalist or fuel the defendant’s victimisation narrative, which is only likely to entrench his support among the conspiracy-minded still further.
Behind closed doors, however, a few wry smiles will surely be permitted.
It is Mr Trump’s opponents on the Republican debate stage who might be more inclined to make hay with his misfortune, particularly if they come to feel their own campaign is faltering and conclude they have nothing left to lose by attacking the favourite.
Mr Christie, in particular, has attempted to position himself as the candidate unafraid to call out Mr Trump but has, to date, been rewarded only with cruel jibes about his weight and poor polling.
