Russia’s war in Ukraine is “very unlikely” to slow down or end in the next few months, while any attempt at calling a ceasefire would currently “overwhelmingly” favour Russia, say experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In a new report on the likely evolution of the conflict, the think tank says Ukraine will aim to build on its recent victory in Kherson by recapturing more land in coming weeks and months.
Though it would be in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s interest to call a ceasefire, he is unlikely to call one due to an increasing “need to show his toughness”, the experts said.
The ISW’s report says Russian forces “are not setting conditions for a relaxation of hostilities into the winter but rather are launching a new offensive in Donetsk Oblast”.
“This is not the time to slow down aid or press for ceasefires or negotiations, but rather the time to help Ukraine take advantage of its momentum in conditions that favour Kyiv rather than Moscow,” it adds.
Ukrainian troops arrived in the centre of Kherson on Friday after Russia abandoned the regional capital.
A cessation or prolonged slowing of combat operations in #Ukraine over the next few months is very unlikely, and any attempt at a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities at this time would overwhelmingly favor #Russia.🧵https://t.co/x1DE2cFTMt https://t.co/D9EwsPKAeB
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 14, 2022
Washington-based ISW, a think tank that tracks the Russian war, described Ukraine’s campaign in Kherson as “an important victory”.
But it stressed Ukraine has not yet liberated the minimum territory it would need to “secure its future security and economic survival”.
The report predicts Ukrainian forces will likely use combat power recouped from the liberation of western Kherson to reinforce their ongoing counter-offensive in Luhansk Oblast, or to mount a fresh drive elsewhere.
“A cessation or prolonged slowing of combat operations over the next few months is therefore very unlikely,” it added.
The ISW says any attempt at a ceasefire or halting hostilities would currently “overwhelmingly favour Russia”, as Putin would desire such a move “in his own interest...to give his forces time to recover [and] stop the Ukrainians from capitalising on the emotional lift of their recent victories”.
The new report decribes Putin’s decision to continue mounting offensives rather than focus on strengthening defences as “a grave error from a military perspective”, adding: “It likely results from whatever psychological factors led Putin to order the invasion in the first place but also increasingly from Putin’s need to show his toughness to [Russia’s] hardline faction”.
“The Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counter-offensive operations already underway,” it added.
“Both sides are already fighting in very muddy conditions. They will not likely stop fighting when winter freezes the ground and makes it even more conducive to large-scale mechanised manoeuvre warfare. Combat is more likely to intensify than to slacken as temperatures drop.”
The ISW’s predictions come amid speculation that the West might push Kyiv to begin talks with Moscow following Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, which marked a major blow for the invading country.
But the European Union’s top diplomat, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, said on Monday that it is up to Ukraine when to enter negotations. “Ukraine will decide what to do. Our duty is to support them,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russian soldiers of committing war crimes and killing civilians in Kherson.
4/ #Putin should desire such a ceasefire in his own interest. He should recognize that he needs to give his forces time to recover and allow the reservists flowing into the theater time to integrate into their units, train up, and prepare for serious combat.
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 14, 2022
In his nightly video address on Sunday, Mr Zelensky said: “Investigators have already documented more than 400 Russian war crimes. Bodies of dead civilians and servicemen have been found.
“The Russian army left behind the same savagery it did in other regions of the country it entered.”
News agency Reuters was unable to verify his allegations. Russia denies its troops intentionally target civilians.
Mass graves have been found in several places across Ukraine since the start of the invasion on February 24, including civilian bodies showing evidence of torture discovered in the Kharkiv region and in Bucha, near Kyiv. Ukraine has accused Russian troops of committing the crimes.
A United Nations commission in October said war crimes were committed in Ukraine and that Russian forces were responsible for the “vast majority” of human rights violations in the early weeks of the war.
