Russia’s recent military advances and ferocious bombardment of Ukraine have led the country to renew calls for western allies to lift their ban on the use of their long-range missiles to hit military targets in Russia. But despite the urgency of the situation, with Russian forces approaching the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in the east of Ukraine, nothing is likely to change this side of the US presidential election.
There remains the distinct possibility that Donald Trump will win in November and immediately withdraw US aid to Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to seek a termination of the conflict on Russia’s terms. This prospect currently dominates political and military calculations in the conflict.
Zelensky’s decision in early August to launch a counter punch against Russia by invading the Kursk region was made when a Trump victory looked all but assured. His logic had several elements.
