The mood regarding the war in Ukraine has changed in recent months. Ukrainian drones have struck Russian oil infrastructure, causing fuel shortages across Russia. And the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is exuberant about finishing the war from a “position of strength”.
The hope is that an economic crisis in Russia leads to social unrest and political instability, possibly resulting in the collapse of the ruling regime. This would not be an unprecedented event in Russian history. The Soviet Union rapidly unravelled amid economic and political crisis in 1991. But how likely is this scenario for Russia today?
