After a long campaign of attritional warfare in the east of Ukraine over the winter months, things appear to be stirring in the south where there have been multiple reports of preparations for the long-awaited Ukrainian spring offensive.
The gradual arrival of the sophisticated military equipment promised by Kyiv’s western allies and the training of Ukrainian troops to use it will be the key to the timing of this anticipated push. Already there are reports that Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the south. This could be the precursor for a major push south towards Crimea.
Russia has spent most of April trading lives and equipment for modest territorial gains around Bakhmut, leaving their forces exhausted. Their own earlier winter offensive achieved little. Capability and morale are suffering, with key Russian figures including the CEO of the Wagner Group mercenary company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, calling for Russia to assume a defensive posture to solidify their hold on the territory they currently occupy.
