More than the offensives that retook so much land in September, the recent recapture of Kherson marks a clear decision point for Ukraine.
Russian forces are now definitively on the defensive – their priority is not to take or retake ground, but to try to hold what they have. To achieve this, they are developing defensive systems in depth and desperately trying to prepare barely trained conscripts for high-intensity combat. The immediate priority for Ukraine is to keep the Russians off-balance so as not to allow them to consolidate their positions or train and prepare those reinforcements.
We can now see with some degree of confidence where the focus of both sides will be over the next months: Crimea. Of all the areas taken from Ukraine since 2014, Crimea carries by far the most significance. In a wide-ranging and fascinating interview in September this year, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valerii Zaluzhny, stated that Crimea is Russia’s “centre of gravity” – the key to the war.
