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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Jedidajah Otte and Andrew Sparrow

Boris Johnson had birthday party at No 10 during 2020 lockdown, report claims – as it happened

Boris Johnson Carrie Johnson Sue Gray No 10 Covid-19 David Davis Nusrat Ghani Dominic Cummings Downing Street Grant Shapps
Boris Johnson on a visit to Bovingdon primary school on June 19, 2020; he is said to have attended a birthday gathering in Downing Street the same day.
Boris Johnson on a visit to Bovingdon primary school on June 19, 2020; he is said to have attended a birthday gathering in Downing Street the same day. Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

Summary

Here a summary of the latest key developments:

That’s all from me, this blog will now close, goodnight.

Scotland Yard has reiterated its previous statement, saying if Sue Gray’s inquiry finds evidence of a potential criminal offence with regard to the birthday gathering for the PM then officers will make a “further consideration” on whether to investigate, PA reports.

More on Tory infighting from Christopher Hope:

And this from Sky News’s Beth Rigby:

This from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope:

My colleagues Jessica Elgot and Aubrey Allegretty report that most Tory MPs are still determined to wait for the outcome of Sue Gray’s inquiry before making up their minds on the future of Boris Johnson as prime minister. Gray’s recommendations on overhauling No 10’s operation are expected late this week.

Full story here:

The FT’s Jim Pickard reports that some Tory MPs think the PM’s job might be saved for now by developments in Ukraine:

From the i newspaper’s Jane Merrick:

Another update from ITV’s Paul Brand:

And this from Piers Morgan:

This from PoliticsHome’s Alan White:

This from Ruth Davidson, the former leader of the Scottish Tories:

My colleague Pamela Duncan has just updated the Guardian’s timeline of alleged parties taking place in No 10:

My colleague Jamie Grierson has put together an explainer on what the social distancing rules were at the time of Boris Johnson’s Downing Street birthday party.

Former Tory party chair Baroness Warsi told Channel 4 News:

Anybody who was at a party where rules were broken, whether that’s the prime minister, ministers, special advisers, or civil servants, should resign.

If you are in a place which makes the rules and you are seen not to be following those rules, then you should fall on your sword.

The FT’s Jim Pickard has unearthed a tweet from the government’s official Twitter account advising a member of the public that staying on for a party with colleagues at the end of a work day was against the rules:

And this from Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn:

David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, has also called for the PM’s resignation:

And this from the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar:

This from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg:

An observation made by a number of people on social media tonight, here from Times Radio’s Stig Abell:

Another update from ITV’s Paul Brand:

Some people on Twitter are pointing towards this tweet from Newham police, dated 4 April 2020, about the force clearing a private 18th birthday party held indoors with 25 guests, alongside a picture showing... some drinks and what appears to be cake

From the Times’ Iain Martin in response to Nadine Dorries’ defending of the alleged birthday party:

And here a statement from the SNP’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford:

Boris Johnson’s conduct has been a disgrace. It is clear the prime minister repeatedly broke the rules and lied about it. He is unfit for office and he has to go.

Tory MPs must remove him without further delay. The longer they wait, the more damage they do to any remaining public trust in the UK government and broken Westminster system.

This is now a question of their own integrity. There simply cannot be one rule for the most powerful people in the Tory government and another for the rest of us. This has to end.

Jo Goodman, co-founder of Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, said in reaction to reports of a birthday bash during lockdown for the prime minister:

Like thousands of others, I remember June 19th vividly. It was the day before what would have been my Dad’s 73rd birthday, shortly after he had passed away from Covid-19.

It was a horrible time for my family, but we stuck to the rules, not even being able to hug to comfort each other.

It’s completely sickening that the prime minister spent the evening sharing cake with 30 friends indoors and though we’re not even surprised any more, it still brings fresh pain. Whilst dozens sang happy birthday to him, families couldn’t even sing in memory at their loved ones funerals.

Regardless of any report, the prime minister clearly needs to resign. He’s lost all credibility.

Every day and every fresh scandal pours salt on the wounds of the hundreds of thousands who have lost loved ones, if he had any decency he would do what we and the country is calling for him to do and go.

Calls for the prime minister’s resignation from Labour’s Sarah Owen, MP for Luton North, Anas Sarwar, the leader of Scottish Labour, and Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow secretary for international trade:

This from my colleague Jessica Elgot:

According to a spokesperson for Lulu Lytle, the interior designer who was hired to do up Boris and Carrie Johnson’s Downing Street flat, she was “present” in the cabinet room on 19 June when the birthday party allegedly took place, but was “waiting to speak with the prime minister”, not to celebrate.

Comment from Keir Starmer on the latest iteration of partygate:

Here a slightly longer version on Sky:

Here an update on the story from ITV’s Paul Brand, who broke it:

Updated

And this from John Nicolson, the MP for Ochil & South Perthshire:

This from cabinet minister Nadine Dorries:

Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, said in reponse to reports that Boris Johnson held a birthday party for himself in June 2020:

This can’t go on any longer.

Party after party, lie after lie, this disgraced prime minister brings more pain every day to bereaved families who have already suffered too much.

It is clear now the Sue Gray inquiry is not fit for purpose. The Met must investigate this to deliver justice for millions who sacrificed so much during this pandemic.

Britain played by the rules which Boris Johnson wrote, but couldn’t be bothered to stick to himself. It is time he saved the country even more pain and resigned.

Some useful detail on whether such a party, if it did take place, would have been illegal, courtesy of barrister Adam Wagner:

From shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Ashworth:

This from Kate Proctor, the political editor of PoliticsHome:

Here is a tweet Boris Johnson posted on 21 March 2020, in which he urges people to “be like Josephine”, a 7-year-old girl who wrote to the prime minister to let him know her birthday party might be cancelled so her family can follow the rules.

“Josephine sets a great example to us all”, Johnson tweeted.

Here some reactions from political journalists to reports of a prime ministerial lockdown birthday party.

From the FT’s Jim Pickard:

Esther Webber from Politico Europe:

This from my colleague Sonia Sodha:

This from the FT’s Henry Mance:

And this from Andrew Neil, the chairman of the Spectator Magazine Group:

Boris Johnson had birthday bash during lockdown, reports suggest

Boris Johnson had a birthday party during the first lockdown in 2020, according to a report by ITV News, with social distancing rules clearly forbidding indoor social gatherings at the time.

The prime minister’s wife, Carrie Johnson, allegedly helped organise a surprise party for Johnson - said to have been attended by up to 30 people, including the interior designer Lulu Lytle - on the afternoon of 19 June.

The event, involving picnic food from M&S, reportedly took place in the Cabinet Room at No 10 Downing Street, after the prime minister returned from an official visit to a school in Hertfordshire.

Downing St say the prime minister only attended for less than 10 minutes.

On the evening of the same day, family friends are understood to have been hosted upstairs in the prime minister’s residence in an apparent further breach of the rules. Number 10 have denied this, claiming the prime minister only hosted a small number of family members outside.

Updated

The Scottish government has announced that it is changing its Covid travel rules in line with the changes announced for England by Grant Shapps. “These measures will significantly open up international travel and were agreed on a UK wide basis,” Michael Matheson, the Scottish government’s net zero, energy and transport secretary said in a statement.

Boris Johnson is under pressure to reverse the national insurance increase from the left (the Labour party) and from the right (numerous Conservative MPs), and today we’ve seen another example of a left/right alliance behind a low tax agenda (or Blairite/right alliance - admittedly, not quite the same thing). Policy Exchange, a rightwing thinktank which has close links to ministers, has announced that Ruth Kelly, a cabinet minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, has joined the new economic and social unit it is setting up. And, in a statement marking her arrival, Kelly has called for the devolution of some taxes, like business rates. She said:

As a former Labour parliamentary candidate for Bolton West, a Tory marginal situated among the ‘Red Wall’ seats, I cannot imagine a situation in which its constituents or any of those in the neighbouring seats would vote at the next election for a larger state and even higher taxes.

They didn’t want a Corbyn and McDonnell spending plan now – and they don’t want it now. Yet the government is presiding over tax burden which is predicted in a few years to reach its highest level since 1949. Vast sums are being spent by the state – but we must do a better job of making sure they are evaluated and properly accounted for.

We should be looking at radical reform to turn the tanker around. Why not have the full devolution of some taxes? We already have mayors firing on all cylinders, why not give them some real fire power.

Updated

This is from Alison Thewliss, the SNP’s Treasury spokesperson, on Lord Agnew’s resignation. (See 4.37pm.)

It is unacceptable that millions of people were excluded from Treasury support through this pandemic while the UK government is prepared to write off the billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money stolen by crooks and fraudsters.

The dire reality is that the Tory government has cut crucial universal credit for struggling households and still refuses to deliver meaningful support to tackle the cost of living crisis. This money could have gone a long way to supporting people who need it the most.

It speaks volumes of the Tory government’s priorities that while ordinary people are being pushed into hardship and poverty, it lets people who have stolen public funds off the hook.

This is from Tim Durrant from the Institute of Government. Resignations outside a reshuffle are a reasonably good indicator for the dysfunctionality of a government, and Lord Agnew’s resignation means Boris Johnson is now pulling ahead of Gordon Brown on this measure (ie, doing worse) at this stage of his premiership.

But Johnson is still a long way off matching Theresa May’s performance in this department.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has used Twitter to sum up the Covid travel changes he announced in the Commons.

In the Commons Shapps said the changes he was announcing would leave the country with “one of the most open travel sectors in the world”.

He did not specify which country he was talking about. He was only announcing changes for England, but Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have mostly followed England’s lead in relation to changing the rules for foreign travel because trying to operate different regimes is deemed impractical.

This is from Philip Lee, the former Conservative MP.

The Lib Dems have challenged Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, to explain how the Treasury will recover the money it has lost through Covid business payments claimed fraudulently. Christine Jardine, the party’s Treasury spokesperson, said:

It is outrageous this government has allowed fraudsters to steal billions of taxpayer’s money, especially when households are facing unfair tax hikes.

The combination of ‘arrogance, indolence, and ignorance’ which Lord Agnew referred to cannot be allowed to continue.

The buck stops with Rishi Sunak. He must explain how he’s going to get back these billions he allowed to be stolen from our schools, hospitals and police forces, and if he can’t, he should resign and maksomeone who will.

Labour says Sunak should be ashamed £4.3bn of government cash allowed to remain in hands of criminals

Rachel Reeves, who as shadow chancellor has repeatedly claimed that she would make spending responsibly a government priority, has described Lord Agnew’s resignation (see 4pm and 4.37pm) as a “damning indictment” of Rishi Sunak, the chancellor. She said:

This is a damning indictment of the chancellor and the government’s failures on fraud.

That the government’s own anti-fraud minister feels he is unable to defend the government’s record on billions of pounds of taxpayer cash gifted to criminals tells you all you need to know about the incompetence of this government.

It should be a source of enduring shame to the chancellor that he has so casually written off £4.3bn of taxpayers’ money that is now in the hand of criminals and gangs.

Coming on top of billions spent on crony contracts and billions more lost in loan fraud schemes, these levels of waste destroy any claim the Conservatives have to careful stewardship of the public finances.

Labour would treat every pound of taxpayer money with the respect it deserves.

Minister resigns, saying income tax could be cut by 1p in pound if government's record on fraud less 'woeful'

In his speech in the Lords which ended with his resignation, Lord Agnew said that he agreed with John Glen, a Treasury minister, who told MPs last week that, in response to a UQ on fraud in Covid grant schemes, that the government had to prioritise distributing money to businesses quickly at the start of the pandemic.

But what followed was “desperately inadequate”, Agnew said.

The oversight by both BEIS [the Department for Business, Enterprise and Industry Strategy] and the British Business Bank of the panel lenders of BBLs has been nothing less than woeful. They have been assisted by the Treasury, who appear to have no knowledge or little interest in the consequences of fraud to our economy or our society.

Agnew said, at the start of the pandemic, BEIS had just two counter-fraud officials on its staff, neither of whom was experienced in this area. They refused to engage with the counter-fraud team at the Cabinet Office reporting to Agnew, Agnew said.

Schoolboy errors were made, for example allowing over a thousand companies to receive bounceback loans that were not even trading when Covid struck ...

I’ve been arguing with Treasury and BEIS officials for nearly two years to get them to lift their game. I’ve been mostly unsuccessful.

Agnew said he was particularly worried about how banks had been able to claim back 100% of some Covid loans that were written off. He said three out of the seven main lenders were responsible for 87% of the loans paid out to firms that were now dissolved. And two of the seven lenders were responsible for 81% of loans to firms set up after the pandemic started, he said.

Agnew said, if only the British Business Bank would “wake up”, there was still time to take action on duplicate loans paid out. He went on:

Despite pressing BEIS and BBB for over a year, there is still no single dashboard of management data to scrutinise lender performance. It is inexcusable.

We’ve already paid out nearly £1bn to banks claiming the state guarantee. The percentage of these losses estimated to be from fraud rather than credit failure is 26%. I accept this as only an earlier approximation but a very worrying one.

Agnew said he had at least four differences of opinion with Treasury officials on what the government should be doing.

He said there was a failure by Treasury and BEIS officials to understand the “complete disjunction” between the amount of criminal activity in this area, probably hundreds of thousands of cases, and the capacity of the enforcement agencies trying to stop it. For example, Natis, the National Investigation Service, can handle just 200 cases a year, he said.

Agnew ended his speech saying:

My lords, you can see it is my deeply held conviction that the current state of affairs is not acceptable.

Given that I am the minister for counter fraud, it feels somewhat dishonest to stay on in that role if I am incapable of doing it properly, let alone defending our track record.

It is for this reason that I have sadly decided to tender my resignation as a minister across the Treasury and Cabinet Office with immediate affect ...

It is worth saying that none of this relates to far more dramatic political events being played out across Westminster. This is not an attack on the prime minister and I’m sorry for the inconvenience it will cause. Indeed, I think any prime minister should be able to reasonably expect that the levers of government were actually connected to delivering services for our citizens.

I hope that as a virtually unknown minister beyond this place giving up my career might prompt others more important than me to get behind this and sorted out.

It matters for all the obvious reasons, but there is a penny of income tax waiting to be claimed here if we just woke up.

Total fraud loss across government is estimated at £29bn a year. Of course, not all can be stopped. But a combination of arrogance, indolence and ignorance freezes the government machine.

Action taken today will give this government a sporting chance of cutting income tax before a likely May 2024 election.

If my removal helps that to happen, it will have been worth it.

Updated

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, is making a statement to MPs confirming that coronavirus testing for double-vaccinated travellers arriving in England is being scrapped.

Treasury minister announces shock resignation in Lords in protest at government handling of fraudulent Covid business payments

Lord Agnew of Oulton has resigned his post as a minister based jointly in the Treasury and in the Cabinet Office in a surprise statement from the dispatch box in the House or Lords. He said he was quitting because of his disapproval of the government’s response to the problem of fraudulent Covid business payments. He told peers:

Given that I am the minister for counter fraud, it would be somewhat dishonest to stay on in that role if I am incapable of doing it properly.

It is for this reason that I have sadly decided to tender my resignation as a minister across the Treasury and Cabinet Office with immediate affect.

Last week the government admitted that it expected to write off more than £4bn in Covid payments that were claimed fraudulently.

Agnew received a rare round of applause in the Lords after he ended his statement.

Angela Smith, the Labour leader in the Lords, said:

I think we have just witnessed one of the most dramatic moments we have ever seen in the house from a minister who felt his integrity could no longer ensure he remained a member of the government.

Lord Agnew.
Lord Agnew. Photograph: HoL/Lord Agnew

Updated

The Liberal Democrats have claimed that the fact that Dominic Cummings has not given evidence to Sue Gray in person highlights the need for a police investigation. Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader, said:

Cummings’ decision not to speak to Sue Gray about the parties in No 10 only serves to highlight once again what a sham process this is, with the person in charge of the investigation unable to compel people to give evidence.

This whole debacle underlines why we need the police to investigate the Downing Street parties without fear or favour, rather than a report that lacks teeth - which the PM will undoubtedly use to let himself off the hook.

As my colleague Jessica Elgot reports, Cummings says he did not want to speak to Gray in person because he was worried Boris Johnson would “invent nonsense [about what he said] and spin it to the media”.

Cummings, though, has not explained why, if No 10 is really determined to leak misleading accounts of his evidence to the media, it might not do that anyway, with regard to what has been submitted in writing. (See 12.42pm.)

Truss says talks with EU on Northern Ireland protocol will intensify

In a joint statement issued after their talks in Brussels on the Northern Ireland protocol Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, and Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice president, said that their meeting “took place in a constructive atmosphere” and that they would meet again next week.

In a statement afterwards, Šefčovič said that with “goodwill” a solution would be possible.

As you know, in areas like customs and the movement of sanitary and phytosanitary goods, the EU has proposed an extensive reduction of formalities unmatched for any other third country.

So if political goodwill is maintained, our discussions could lead to a timely agreement on durable solutions that would immediately and significantly help operators on the ground.

In an interview with Sky News, Truss said that there had been progress and that she and Šefčovič had agreed there should be “more intensive talks”. But she would not say where the progress had come; giving a “running commentary” would not be helpful, she said. She also refused to confirm or deny that the end of February was being considered as a possible deadline for the negotiations.

Updated

The anti-racism and anti-fascism campaign group Hope Not Hate has said it thinks Islamophobia is such a serious problem within the Conservative party that the Equalities and Human Rights Commission should open an investigation. In a statement Hope Not Hate’s CEO Nick Lowles said:

What Nus Ghani has been through is reprehensible. While it is welcome that this incident is being investigated by the Cabinet Office, Ghani’s story is just one episode in the sorry tale of deep-rooted Islamophobia in the Conservative party.

After years of reported incidents and campaigning on the issue, it is simply disgusting that Islamophobia within the party of government has still not been addressed. It is now time for the EHRC to step in and take action, because as we have repeatedly pointed out, Islamophobia runs right through the Conservative party, from its grassroots activists to its most senior figures. This has real life consequences for Muslim communities in the UK, as it is not a coincidence that after Boris Johnson called Muslim women ‘letter boxes’ and ‘bank robbers’, hate crimes against Muslims went up by 375%.

Updated

This morning Labour said Michael Fabricant should have the Conservative whip removed for an interview he gave yesterday in which he said Nusrat Ghani was not somebody who was “obviously a Muslim”. (See 9.27am.) That has not happened, but at the No 10 lobby briefing the PM’s spokesman said Boris Johnson rejected Fabricant’s view. “The PM would not agree with the idea that someone’s religion determines what someone looks like,” the spokesman said.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesman suggested it would be up to Boris Johnson to decide how much of the Sue Gray report into partygate gets published. Using the formula that suggests much of the detail will not be released, the spokesman said: “It’s very much our intention to publish the findings in full as set out in the terms of reference.”

But asked if Gray could therefore ask for the whole report to be published - even if Johnson disagreed - the spokesman said: “I think it is a report that comes to the prime minister.”

Updated

William Wragg confirms he has discussed claims of Tory MPs being subject to 'blackmail' by No 10 with police

William Wragg met the Metropolitan police this morning to discuss claims that Tory MPs opposed to Boris Johnson have been subject to “blackmail” by No 10, the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope reports.

Boris Johnson conducted his pooled interview during a visit to a hospital in Milton Keynes today. Almost all his TV-focused visits at the moment involve a hospital or a vaccination centre, and this is clearly part of a PR strategy intended to convey the impression that Johnson is focusing on what matters to the public (the NHS) not on what matters to journalists (partygate etc). Johnson deployed exactly the same technique in 2019, when he first became prime minister and when he was trying to persuade people to side with him against MPs blocking Brexit. Dominic Cummings, who was Johnson’s chief adviser at the time, described the tactic in a blog published last year. He wrote:

Forgotten now is how from July we sent him to hospital after hospital after hospital. (He hated it but he was in self-aware mode and knew focus was needed to avoid imminent career death.) He would give reactions to parliament’s latest Brexit nonsense from a hospital talking about the public’s priorities. People would see [Dominic] Grieve babbling away and the PM in a hospital trying to move the country on. Want to understand how swing voters watch the news? Watch with the volume turned off for a while and imagine what the audience at Wrestlemania will think.

This time, though, the tactic may be less successful. People are bothered about partygate; it is not just a fringe media preoccupation. And while roughly half the country sided with Johnson on Brexit in 2019, on partygate public opinion is overwhelmingly against him.

Boris Johnson, centre, speaking with surgeon Barrie Keeler (left) and and chief executive Prof Joe Harrison Milton, during a visit to Milton Keynes University Hospital in Buckinghamshire today.
Boris Johnson, centre, speaking with surgeon Barrie Keeler (left) and and chief executive Prof Joe Harrison Milton, during a visit to Milton Keynes university hospital in Buckinghamshire today. Photograph: Adrian Dennis/AP

Updated

Invasion of Ukraine would be 'painful, violent and bloody' for Russia, says Johnson

In his pooled TV interview Boris Johnson said that, although he did not think a Russian invasion of Ukraine was inevitable, the intelligence was “gloomy”.

He said that the people of Ukraine would resist any invasion and that, from the Russian perspective, it would be “a painful, violent and bloody business”, he said. He added:

The UK is in the lead in creating that package of economic sanctions... helping to stiffen the resistance of our Ukrainian friends with defensive weaponry that we are supplying, making it clear that we stand fully four-square with the people of Ukraine and that we support the sovereign integrity of Ukraine, and we do.

But we also need to get over to Russia that any invasion, any incursion - of any kind, of any dimension - into Ukraine is not going to be a cost-free business ... There will be casualties.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing, the PM’s spokesman confirmed that British combat troops would not be used to defend Ukraine. He said there were “no plans to send UK combat troops” to the region but sanctions were on the table if Russia invaded.

Updated

PM says he is 'determined' to find more cash for NHS - but won't 100% commit to NICs hike going ahead

In his pooled TV interview Boris Johnson refused to absolutely confirm that the planned increase in national insurance contributions (NICs) would definitely go ahead in April. He did defend it relatively strongly, but he left himself a bit of wriggle-room that suggests a last-minute rule change has not 100% been ruled out.

Conservative MPs and the rightwing papers like the Daily Mail are getting increasingly vocal (see 10.40am) in their calls for it to be abandoned. (The Labour party has opposed it all along.) Scrapping the national insurance increase would be immensely embarrassing, but it would be surprising if Johnson has not started to at least mull over the possibility that, if he does face a no confidence vote soon, this might be the sort of concession needed as a last ditch career-saver.

Jonathan Blake, the BBC reporter conducting the interview, asked Johnson at least five times for a firm guarantee that the NICs increase would go ahead in April. He never got one. In response to his opening question, Johnson said:

What we’ve got to do is look at all the ways we can address the cost of living ... It’s the cost of fuel.

Asked if the tax rise could be shelved, Johnson went on:

It’s making sure that we deal with inflation by getting people into work, dealing with problems in the supply chains, getting people off welfare into work, helping to get our economy moving smoothly.

So there was no guarantee of the NICs increase going ahead, Blake suggested. Johnson replied:

Just on that specific issue, look at where we are, look at what we’re investing in. And don’t forget what I think is the number one priority for people in this country; the NHS has done an amazing job but it has been under terrific strain.

Blake tried at least twice more. Johnson did not make an absolute commitment to the NICs increase, but he did insist that his government would find more money for the NHS. He said:

What I’m telling you is we’ve got to put that money in. We’ve got to make that investment in our NHS ...

What I’m telling people is that if you want to fund our fantastic NHS, we have to pay for it. And this government is determined to do so.

Earlier, at the Downing Street lobby briefing, the PM’s spokesman gave a firmer answer. Asked if the government was still committed to the NICs increase in April, he said yes. He also justified it partly on the grounds that it was needed to fund a pay rise for NHS staff. He told journalists:

This levy is first and foremost to deal with tackling the massive backlog which we have seen caused by this global pandemic. It then seeks to address the long-standing problem of fixing our social care system which is unfairly penalises a small [proportion of people]. It also helps fund a pay rise for NHS staff, which the public massively want to see. So this is the right approach to tackle this long-standing problem.

The spokesman took a markedly different line on calls for VAT on domestic fuel bills to be abolished. Johnson has argued against this in the past, saying he would rather target help for those most in need instead of introducing a VAT cut that would particularly benefit people with large homes, but today the spokesman strongly hinted that a VAT cut was on the cards, saying the government was “considering all options”.

Ministers are reportedly considering a mixed package to help householders with fuel bills, combining a measure that would help everyone (a VAT cut potentially) with specific support for those most in need (an extension of the warm home discount potentially).

Updated

In the Commons this afternoon there will be an urgent question on the tsunami in Tonga at 3.30pm, followed by a statement from Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, about Covid travel rules at around 4.15pm. Shapps will be giving more details of the change announced by Boris Johnson earlier. (See 12.24pm.)

Cummings says he has given evidence to Sue Gray in writing, but not in person

Dominic Cummings has confirmed that he has given evidence to Sue Gray as part of her inquiry into partygate. But he says that reports that she would be interviewing him today were wrong. In a post on his Substack blog, he says he told Gray that he would prefer to give evidence in writing to reduce the chances of his evidence being leaked and misrepresented. He claims this happened in the past after he spoke to officials on a matter relating to the security services.

So when SG asked to speak to me I emailed to the effect: if we speak the PM will invent nonsense and spin it to the media and you and I will both have problems, let’s keep everything in writing, therefore he cannot invent things I’ve supposedly said to you, there is only a written record, this makes both our lives easier. She agreed. So I have answered questions in writing and will answer further questions in writing if she wants. But I will not speak and therefore provide the PM with more chances to lie and confuse everybody.

Cummings says is not questioning Gray’s integrity; he thinks leaking against him might come from elsewhere.

Cummings also says he will do a Q&A with his Substack subscribers after the Gray report has been published.

Dominic Cummings outside his London home this morning.
Dominic Cummings outside his London home this morning. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Johnson says tests for fully-vaccinated people arriving in UK to be abandoned

Boris Johnson has also said that the government is going to relax the Covid testing rules for people arriving in the UK. Speaking in his pooled interview this morning, he said:

We have, thanks to the tough decisions, the big calls that we made... the most open economy and society in Europe.

And although we have to be cautious, we are now moving through the Omicron wave, and you can see the figures are starting to get better.

So what we’re doing on travel, to show that this country is open for business, open for travellers, you will see changes so that people arriving no longer have to take tests if they have been vaccinated, if they have been double vaccinated.

As PA Media reports, fully vaccinated arrivals must currently pre-book and take a post-arrival test from a private supplier. This can be a lateral flow test, which typically costs around £19.

Arrivals who are not fully vaccinated must take a pre-departure test and two post-arrival PCR tests, which are more expensive than the lateral flow version.
They must also self-isolate for 10 days.

Boris Johnson on a visit to Milton Keynes this morning
Boris Johnson on a visit to Milton Keynes this morning. Photograph: BBC News

Updated

Johnson claims he is taking Nusrat Ghani's Islamophobia claims 'extremely seriously'

Boris Johnson has said he is taking the claims by Nusrat Ghani that she sacked as a minister because of concerns about her “Muslimness” extremely seriously. On a visit this morning he said:

We take these allegations extremely seriously, I took them very seriously when they were raised with me 18 months ago ... very glad there’s an investigation taking place now. I can’t say more, really, about it.

Asked if Mark Spencer, the chief whip, could stay in post while the investigation was conducted, Johnson sidestepped the question, saying:

This is something I take personally extremely seriously, I took it very seriously 18 months ago, we must wait and see what the investigation produces.

Spencer has confirmed that he spoke to Ghani after she was dismissed as a minister, but he has denied saying that concerns about her faith were a factor.

Updated

National insurance increase will fuel inflation, IoD claims

The national insurance increase is partly a tax rise for individuals but partly a tax rise for businesses too, because employees’ and employers’ national insurance contributions are both going up, and this morning the Institute of Directors are released data suggesting that firms will respond by putting up prices and hiring fewer staff.

Around 500 firms replied to the survey, and 38% said they would “raise prices to offset some or all of the cost” in response to the national insurance increase, and 19% said they would “employ fewer people”.

Kitty Usher, the IoD’s chief economist, said:

The forthcoming rise in employers’ national insurance contributions is of real and genuine concern to business leaders, particularly those running small and medium sized businesses that are the growth engine of our economy.

Our data shows that the tax rise is itself inflationary at a time when prices are already rising fast. Faced with the forthcoming increase in the cost of employing their teams, many businesses are planning to raise prices to offset the cost and/or rein in on their hiring plans.

Here are three of the stories from other papers and websites this morning about developments in the Sue Gray partygate investigation.

Members of the Metropolitan Police’s Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection Command who were on duty when a string of lockdown-breaking gatherings are alleged to have taken place have provided detailed testimonies about what they witnessed ...

While police officers cannot be compelled to speak to Ms Gray – unlike Downing St staff – it is understood they were “only too willing” to co-operate.

One source said on Sunday night: “Met officers have spoken to Sue Gray now, as you would expect, and have been able to provide a lot of information.”

Asked how significant the material they had disclosed was, the source added: “Put it this way, if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister by the end of the week, I’d be very surprised.”

  • Henry Zeffman and Steven Swinford in the Times (paywall) says rebel Tory MPs are considering using subject access requests to find out what government whips have been saying abhout them in emails and texts. They say:

One idea being discussed by [MPs] is to send subject access requests to Mark Spencer, the chief whip. The requests allow people to use data protection law to demand personal data an organisation holds about them.

Doing so, the MPs believe, would force Spencer to disclose within a month any messages, emails and texts discussing potential consequences for disloyalty — either directly to the MPs or in exchanges among the whips office.

While MPs are not subject to freedom of information laws as they are not public authorities, they must comply with subject access requests. Subject access requests are filed by the person in question, not a third party. Complying with requests is a legal obligation under the Data Protection Act 1998.

The fact that the manoeuvre is being considered underlines the depth of discord in Conservative ranks.

  • Anna Isaac at the Independent says officials at No 10 have “held back information from Sue Gray’s investigation into the partygate scandal due to a ‘culture of fear’ surrounding the probe”. She says:

Three sources told The Independent they have not divulged messages and pictures on their phones after a senior member of staff told them to remove anything that could fuel speculation in the wake of the first party revelations.

Messages in a WhatsApp group were said to contain photographs of people drinking and dancing, as well as references to how hungover people were the next day.

On the subject of the Sue Gray report, in his Today interview Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, effectively confirmed that not all the material from the report would be made public. Zahawi said that, under the terms of reference, the “findings” would be published. It is expected that Gray will publish a summary of her findings and conclusions, but that other material, including names of junior officials facing possible disciplinary action, will not be disclosed.

This is what has happened before with the results of Cabinet Office inquiries. For example, after the cabinet secretary conducted an investigation into claims that Damian Green, then first secretary of state, broke the ministerial code, the published summary (pdf) ran to just two pages.

Last week David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, dramatically told Boris Johnson in the Commons that he should quit. On the basis of his words, you might have assumed that Davis would be writing to the chairman of the Conservative 1922 Committee calling for a no confidence vote, but in his Today interview this morning Davis said that he had not yet written such a letter and that he would not decide whether or not to do so “until three or four days after the Sue Gray report”.

Asked to explain the apparent inconsistency, Davis argued effectively that, in urging Johnson to resign, he was advising the prime minister what would be best for him personally. If he resigned now, Johnson would be able to leave with a positive legacy (Brexit and Covid vaccines), Davis argued.

Davis said he would decide whether or not to call for a no confidence vote on the basis of what was best for the Conservative party and for the government. He said it was “pretty likely” that he would back calls for a no confidence vote, but he said he wanted to wait for the Gray report before deciding for good.

David Davis in the Commons last week.
David Davis in the Commons last week. Photograph: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/PA

Updated

In his Today programme interview Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, defended the national insurance increase that David Davis (see 10.40am) and other Tory MPs want to abandon. Zahawi said:

On the national insurance, the £36bn is necessary because successive governments ... of every colour have not dealt with this.

It is really important to remember that the highest earners, the 14% who earn the most are paying 50% - they are paying half of that contribution, and the lowest earners, 6.1 million of the lowest earners pay nothing, so it is as progressive as we can make it to deal with a problem that breaks many an individual in their old age.

So it is really important to just focus on why we are doing this, why I think it is the right thing to do, because it will finally create a system of adult social care that is sustainable and deliverable without breaking families.

The government has given no indication (so far, at least) that it will give in to the “Spike the Hike” campaign. In an interview with the BBC’s Newscast at the end of last week, Simon Clarke, the chief secretary to the Treasury, ruled out a U-turn on this issue, while he also hinted that the Treasury might be open to cutting VAT on fuel (another tax cut that Tory MPs and others are lobbying for, which previously has been resisted by ministers).

In Scotland from today nightclubs can reopen, and other Covid restrictions imposed in December in response to the rise of the Omicron variant, including limits on large indoor events and table service requirements for venues selling alcohol, have been lifted. John Swinney, the deputy first minister, told Good Morning Scotland that this was a “very significant moment”. He said:

I think it’s too early to say it’s the beginning of the end, because I think anybody listening to the international commentary on the progress of Covid around the world would indicate that there are significant challenges that remain in the handling of Covid, particularly about the possibility of new variants.

But I think today marks a very significant moment of progress in Scotland in tackling Covid and enabling people to live lives a bit more closely to what we would normally expect to be the case.

David Davis claims national insurance hike won't raise expected £12bn because it will hammer growth

In September only five Conservative MPs voted against the government when the Commons passed the £12bn a year national insurance increase that will fund the health and social care levy (extra money directed mostly at the NHS backlog first, and social care later). But now, if today’s Daily Mail splash is correct, the entire cabinet has turned against it. In their story Harriet Line and Calum Muirhead report:

The whole cabinet would back delaying the controversial national insurance hike to help families hit by the cost of living crisis, a top minister claims ...

Last night a senior minister said there would be ‘no objection’ from the cabinet if Mr Sunak halted the increase. They added: ‘If the chancellor proposed to the cabinet that he wanted to cancel the national insurance contributions rise, there would be no objection to it. There would be no objection from the prime minister either because this is very much a Treasury policy.’

The claim from an unnamed minister that this is “very much a Treasury policy” sounds like a response to the news, reported by Glen Owen in the Mail on Sunday yesterday, that in private meetings with Tory MPs Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has been referring to it as “the prime minister’s tax”. This suggests no one in cabinet is very keen to accept ownership of the policy.

As to which of these rival claims is most correct, in truth the prime minister and the chancellor both have a veto over tax policy and the national insurance increase would never have gone through without Johnson and Sunak both agreeing it. But reports last autumn implied Johnson was taking the initiative in pushing for a tax that would fund expensive social care reform. That is what the Daily Mail itself reported at the time.

The Mail itself is running a campaign to shelve the tax increase, so its reporting can be seen as partial. One curious feature of its coverage is that it does not seem to mention the fact there is one major party in the UK that has firmly opposed the national insurance hike - Labour.

But the Mail is reflecting concerns shared by many Conservative MPs and this morning David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, became the latest senior figure calling for the national insurance increase to be abandoned. It is due to come into force in April, costing the average household £600.

Davis told the Today programme this morning that when the government announced the increase, it was using “quite a lot of wrong data”. They did not know inflation would be as high as it is, that council tax would be going up, that interest rates would be going up, and that fuel bills would be about to rise by £700 a year for an average family, he claimed.

He also claimed increasing national insurance was wrong in principle. He explained:

It’s economically unwise. It creates a disincentive to work, either for overtime or promotion; a disincentive to employment because it will penalise employers too. It’s going to hit effective demand, hit the growth of the whole economy, undermine the general tax base as a result and it’s probably not going to raise anything like £12bn. In fact, it might even have a negative effect because it shocks growth out of the economy.

Asked where the government would get the money for the health and social care levy if it abandoned this increase, Davis said Treasury forecasts had overstated the size of the deficit by about £50bn.

Davis also claimed that going ahead with the tax rise result in the Conservatives losing the votes of people who switched to them in 2019. He said in all the swing, northern seats he visited, he heard people saying they were voting Tory because Jeremy Corbyn would put their taxes up. “So for our own political interest, but more importantly for the national interest, we should cancel those national insurance increases,” he said.

Updated

The Liberal Democrats are saying that the Cabinet Office investigation into the Nusrat Ghani claims must take evidence from Boris Johnson himself. Layla Moran, the Lib Dem foreign affairs spokesperson, said:

Boris Johnson appears to have ignored Nusrat Ghani’s calls for an independent inquiry back in 2020, and is only acting now the issue has surfaced in the media. This is typical of the cynicism we’ve come to expect of Johnson, acting only when he thinks it’s necessary to save his own skin. It comes as no surprise that someone who once compared Muslim women to letterboxes failed to take allegations of Islamophobia seriously.

We now need assurances that this inquiry will question Boris Johnson himself, and find out why no action was taken when these extremely serious allegations were first made.

Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, was doing the morning interview round on behalf of the government today. He called for an investigation into Nusrat Ghani’s claims on Saturday night, very soon after the Sunday Times story reporting them was published, and this morning he praised her bravery in speaking out. He said:

This is very serious, it takes a lot of bravery for someone to stand up and say: ‘My religion was taken into consideration when I was being assessed for what I do as a job.’ That should never happen and there is no room for it.

Zahawi also said he hoped the Cabinet Office investigation ordered by the PM this morning would conclude “swiftly”.

Nadhim Zahawi on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning.
Nadhim Zahawi on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning. Photograph: ITV/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

Labour says PM’s response to Nusrat Ghani’s Islamophobia claims too limited

Good morning. It is getting hard to keep abreast of all the crises engulfing No 10 at the moment, and so at the start of a week that may determine whether or not Boris Johnson remains prime minister by the time of the May elections, here is a quick summary of the six biggest problems in his in-tray.

Sleaze/corruption problems

1) The Sue Gray investigation into partygate. The report is expected later this week, but it is still not finished, and Gray, the senior civil servant running the investigation, is reportedly taking evidence today from Dominic Cummings, the PM’s former chief adviser who has produced some of the most damaging revelations in this scandal.

2) Nusrat Ghani’s Islamphobia allegations. As my colleague Peter Walker reports, this morning Johnson ordered a formal inquiry.

Ghani has welcomed this move.

But Labour has said that the proposed inquiry does not go far enough. In response to the announcement, Anneliese Dodds, the shadow equalities minister, said:

This inquiry is welcome, but doesn’t replace the need for an immediate investigation into whether the chief whip broke the ministerial code. After the government’s shameful response yesterday to serious allegations of Islamophobia, we’ll only know that the Conservatives are finally beginning to take this issue seriously if Michael Fabricant has the whip removed for his appalling comments.

3) The allegations about intimidation and blackmail by the party whips. Ghani was only the latest Tory MP to allege wrongdoing by party whips. On Thursday William Wragg accused No 10 of using blackmail to intimidate MPs critical of Johnson, and this week he is due to discuss the allegations with police.

Policy problems

4) The national insurance increase. The Daily Mail is running a “Spike the Hike” campaign, other papers are also increasingly vocal in their opposition to the national insurance increase due to take effect in April, and they are emboldening Tory MPs who did not like it anyway.

5) Fuel prices. Johnson is also under intense pressure to do something about rising energy prices.

6) And, of course, Russia may be about to start a land war in Europe.

Here is the agenda for the day.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

12pm: Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president, gives a speech on delivering on the Cop26 pledges.

Lunchtime: Boris Johnson is expected to give a pooled TV interview while on a visit.

2.30pm: Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

Also, Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is meeting Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice president and EU Brexit negotiator, in Brussels for the latest set of talks on the Northern Ireland protocol.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

Updated

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