The energy crisis is well-documented but what would happen if the worst outcome occurred and Brits were plunged into darkness during the coldest and darkest winter months? National Grid has previously issued a warning to UK households that blackouts could become a reality this winter but John Pettigrew, National Grids CEO, said this was a "worst-case scenario".
However, in preparation for the prospect of power going down, the government has been creating emergency plans that would help us cope with the energy blackouts. According to a report in the Mirror, these plans could last up to seven days in the event of a national power outage.
In a report published by the publication this week, it said the government was currently stress-testing 'Programme Yarrow', which it called a confidential plan put in place for power outages. The plan pre-dates the current energy crisis having been created in 2021. It is understood that the plan was created in an effort to improve planning in the event of a major fault on the National Grid.
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With the cost of energy soaring following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many will be carefully watching their home smart meters in a bid to keep their energy usage and bills lower. British Gas recently confirmed that it would be trialling a scheme to pay households to use appliances at night this winter - a move that is hoped would ease the burden on power grids and prevent blackouts.
Should the worst happen and power supplies go down, documents marked “official sensitive” warn that in a “reasonable worst-case scenario”, all sectors including transport, food and water supply, communications and energy could be “severely disrupted” for up to a week during the blackouts, the Guardian reports.
What this would mean for UK households was explained by the Mirror, which said there are three main things that could happen.
Emergency broadcasts
First on our list is communication. In the plan's worst-case scenario, only analogue FM radios would work, with just BBC Radio 2 and 4 broadcasting. It was previously revealed that the BBC prepared secret scripts that could be read on air if energy shortages cause blackouts or the loss of gas supplies for Brits this winter. This is due to uncertainties around local radio as some stations only have a few hours of backup generator cover.
Programme Yarrow is in place for where power is unavailable, without any pre-warning, to all premises without backup generators during winter. In the plans, it's thought that 60 per cent of electricity demand will be met “between day two and day seven” - this is when households and businesses will be given “intermittent access” to ration supply.
An agreement between energy regulator Ofgem and National Grid requires that 100 per cent of the electricity demand should be restored after a week.
Food and the most vulnerable
Plans suggest that ministers would focus on getting food, water and shelter to the young and elderly people, alongside those with caring responsibilities, should the country experience blackouts. A series of exercises with government departments and councils across the country are understood to have happened in recent days to stress-test the process.
The type of technical fault that could lead to these systems being implemented include flood damage or a lightning strike on a substation, as well as an attack by a hostile state on sub-sea power cables.
Planned 3-hour rolling blackouts
There are, however, plans for more severe situations. These include planned three-hour rolling blackouts, as announced last month. These will "probably [be] between 4pm and 7pm in the evenings on those weekdays when it’s really, really cold in January and February", with the Met Office predicting low temperatures. Under the electricity supply emergency code, households and businesses will be given 24 hours’ notice of a planned outage.
The plan, which is designed to cut power evenly across the country, could be published up to a week ahead on a rolling basis to allow those to prepare as necessary. National Grid has also composed an incentive strategy, which could come in this month, and will pay companies and households to reduce their demand during tight supply periods - as indicated in the British Gas scheme.
Ed Miliband, Labour's Shadow Business Secretary, said: "All governments do contingency planning for worst-case scenarios but the truth is that we are vulnerable as a country as a direct consequence of a decade of failed Conservative energy policy. Banning onshore wind, slashing investment in energy efficiency, stalling nuclear and closing gas storage have led to higher bills and reliance on gas imports, leaving us more exposed to the impact of Putin’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon. That’s what causes the concern in government. It is prudent [to plan for outages]. It’s a shame it takes a crisis to have this conversation.”
A Government spokesperson told the Mirror: "As a responsible government, it is right that we plan for all potential scenarios and work with the industry to prepare and exercise robust contingency plans. This work is ongoing continuously and is an important strand of our national resilience planning.
"Local and national exercises are a part of this ongoing work and ensure we are able to effectively respond to any wide range of scenarios, no matter how unlikely they may be."
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