MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 223.
UFC Fight Night 223 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-2-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 35-29-3
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Josh Quinlan (-175) vs. Trey Waters (+140)
The main card in Las Vegas kicks off with an impromptu pairing at welterweight between Josh Quinlan and Trey Waters.
Although I was looking forward to seeing Quinlan tested by Ange Loosa, Waters provides a unique problem with his height and length. That said, despite the dangerous knees and counters of Waters, I believe that his strike retractions – coupled with the speed differential – potentially sets him up early for a nasty knockout loss.
The pick is Quinlan to take out another short-notice opponent in the first round.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-185) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+150)
Death, taxes, and the UFC matchmakers continuing to bury fun flyweight fights on the prelims in favor of force-feeding us heavyweight matchups that no one is asking for on the main card.
This week, the powers that be decided to feature a fight between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, right between two action-promising affairs.
Despite de Lima being a fighter whom I used to auto-fade to lose by submission, the Brazilian bruiser has found new life at heavyweight – a division sorely lacking a ground-fighting presence.
For that reason, I’ll reluctantly side with de Lima to ply his more flexible game and experience over the Contender Series product by grinding Cortes-Acosta out by a lackluster decision.
Julian Erosa (-150) vs. Fernando Padilla (+125)
Despite Juilan Erosa deserving a much better name at this point in his career, I’m glad that the UFC at least gave him a slot on the main card and a fun dance partner in Fernando Padilla.
Considering that visa issues have kept Padilla out for two years, it’s hard to forecast what the 26-year-old will even look like at this point in his career.
Padilla, akin to Erosa, is a tall and long action fighter who almost prefers a dirty fight on the inside. The Mexican is also a brown belt in the 10th Planet jiu-jitsu system, but I’m not sure we’ll see too many prolonged ground exchanges in this one.
I’ll side with the experience of Erosa (who spookily resembles Cameron from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off”) to see him through down the stretch via a nip-and-tuck win on the scorecards.
Cody Brundage (+185) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (-225)
Despite the lack of names and numbers left for this Saturday, the UFC matchmakers still saw fit to make this a six-fight main card by forcing yet another middleweight matchup into the mix.
Even though the smaller octagon should favor the submission sensibilities of Vieira, I find myself siding with the underdog in this spot.
Not only is Brundage a solid wrestler who trains at elevation, but the American is also an opportunistic finisher who is still young and improving.
I’ll take a flier on Brundage to survive the early submission storm from Vieira in order to score a knockout by the end of the second round.
Caio Borralho (-375) vs. Michal Olekseijczuk (+290)
The co-main event on ESPN+ features a middleweight matchup between Caio Borralho and Michal Olekseijczuk.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I believe that Olekseijczuk is a lot livelier than the betting lines are indicating.
Borralho may be getting the promotional push due to his ties to a Dana White pet project, but Olekseijczuk – for all his faults – is a proven finisher at multiple weight classes at this level.
That said, I still have a hard time going against the superior submission fighter in the smaller cage.
The pick is for Borralho to survive the early striking scares in order to secure a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Song Yadong (+105) vs. Ricky Simon (-125)
The main event in Las Vegas features an important bantamweight battle between Song Yadong and Ricky Simon.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this is a close fight no matter how you cut it.
Yadong could easily replicate Urijah Faber’s win over Simon (a win Yadong had a hand in) by countering Simon’s lead-had commitments with his hair-trigger crosses and hooks. That said, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the smaller octagon provides an inherent stylistic edge to superior submission fighters and wrestlers.
Couple that with the fact that Yadong has shown a propensity to fade in past fights, and I’ll side with Simon to survive the Chinese fighter’s power early in order to secure a head-and-arm choke in the third round.
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