The League Two table and the various promotion and play-off permutation can either be viewed with great simplicity from a Bristol Rovers perspective, or with considerable complexity.
We're not going to explore the latter part too much as that can keep for next week but if you want a straightforward route for the Gas into League One then they need to take six points against Rochdale and Scunthorpe, require Exeter City to win both their final two games and Forest Green to overcome Mansfield Town on the concluding weekend.
Should that transpire, then Rovers will occupy the final automatic promotion place but you know, as well as we do, it won't be as clean or stress-free as that and with six teams in contention for third place and eight overall competing for play-off places, the possibilities are such they're liable to make your brain hurt.
But Rovers have done exceptionally well to put themselves into this position, considering their start to the season, and while it won't provide too much comfort, it's the most exciting climax to a campaign since... we won't say it, but you know the answer.
Ahead of a weekend in which the word pivotal doesn't remotely do it justice, we've broken down the eight teams still vying for promotion - with Forest Green and Exeter's fate secured - and who they still have to play...
Northampton - 76pts | GD +20
- Exeter City (H)
- Barrow (A)
The Cobblers need just a point to guarantee play-offs but also have automatic promotion in their hands, providing they can get the job done against already-promoted Exeter and Barrow, who are safe from relegation and can’t finish any higher than 18th.
Forest Green’s wobble at Swindon has given the Grecians a real shot at landing the title which makes Saturday’s test at Sixfields crucial for both sides, with the visitors having won six of their last seven games.
Barrow may be on the beach, literally and figuratively, but it’s not exactly the most agreeable of away days for Northampton, especially in what is likely to be a high pressure situation, should they lose to Exeter.
Port Vale - 75pts | GD +21
- Newport County (H)
- Exeter City (A)
Newport’s promotion race is run and with five defeats in their last seven games and just five goals scored in that period, it’s a welcome time to be playing them as James Rowberry’s side lick their wounds.
Exeter’s role as kingmakers become further evident as, providing they have taken something from the trip to Northampton, they will have a shot at the title, depending on how Forest Green perform at Mansfield.
It’s the slenderest of margins but that small goal difference advantage - which Vale will be hopeful of extending this weekend - is likely to be crucial.
Mansfield Town - 75pts | GD +15
- Salford City (A)
- Forest Green Rovers (H)
The Stags did the business at home to Stevenage on Tuesday night to leapfrog over Rovers and reassert their position in the top six with back-to-back wins after three defeats from four games prior to that.
Unlike any of the eight contenders, however, they do have games against teams still competing for something - in Salford’s case, the top seven; with regards to Forest Green, the title.
Salford have lost just twice at Moor Lane this year but after an impressive 11-game unbeaten run between February 1 and April 8, have recently dropped points at Rovers and Barrow before relegating Oldham Athletic on the weekend.
Who knows how potent Forest Green will be on the final day of the season, having achieved so much relative to their history, the title may not feel quite as important or necessary as securing League One football for next season. Then again, with the pressure off, Rob Edwards’ side could open up even more than usual and put on a real attacking show.
Bristol Rovers - 74pts | GD +14
- Rochdale (A)
- Scunthorpe United (H)
That goalless draw with Forest Green hurt, not only because it gave the visitors a chance to celebrate in their own backyard, but it would have given the Gas both breathing space in terms of the play-offs and put them alongside Northampton in the race for automatic promotion.
No matter, they remain well-placed and with two fixtures against teams with no competitive requirements placed on them, outside of being professional. That does, as Nick Anderton mentioned this week, mean they can play with a sense of freedom, as the pressure lies with Rovers.
It’s worth noting that despite being anchored down in lower mid-table, Rochdale are unbeaten at Spotland in their last four matches while the Gas have dropped points from their last three trips to the north west - Tranmere, Carlisle and Oldham Athletic.
Should Rovers break that run, there isn’t a game you’d rather want on the final day of the season than rock bottom and relegated Scunthorpe who have lost eight of their last nine matches, and haven’t taken three points since February 8. Getting that goal difference up towards 20 will also be a little secondary mission for Joey Barton’s side.
Sutton United - 73pts | GD +17
- Bradford City (H)
- Harrogate Town (A)
Similar to Rovers, albeit against superior opposition, Sutton have the comparative luxury of two teams with nothing more than a few higher places to play for.
Bradford, admittedly, will want to finish with a flourish under Mark Hughes and will unquestionably have designs on promotion for next term after what’s been a busted flush for them in 2021/22. The Bantams, though, have just one win in their last seven games and that was against Scunthorpe.
Harrogate away is a long haul for Sutton on the final day, but with the Sulphurites in equally dodgy form having lost four straight before Saturday’s 3-0 win over Carlisle United.
Swindon Town - 71pts | GD +19
- Barrow (H)
- Walsall (A)
With Harry McKirdy back fit and scoring, and Tuesday’s win over Forest Green reigniting confidence, the Robins will hold a considerable degree of belief they can, at the very least, of giving themselves the best possible opportunity of sneaking into the top seven.
Automatics are still mathematically possible but a long shot, given the raft of permutations and results that need to fall in their favour.
They welcome Barrow to the County Ground this weekend with the Bluebirds, as mentioned, essentially playing their way to the end of the season. Walsall are in similar territory, in 14th but Michael Flynn will be keen to finish a testing campaign in some form after a run of four defeats in their last six games.
Salford City - 69pts | GD +16
- Mansfield Town (H)
- Stevenage (A)
They could be out of contention by 5pm on Saturday as they need to beat Mansfield to stay in the conversation going into the final weekend, and also hope Swindon and Sutton don’t win, but Salford’s home record is strong and their three of their four defeats in 2022 have been narrow 1-0s to promotion-challenging teams: Rovers, Port Vale and Northampton, having also held Exeter and Forest Green and beaten Swindon.
Should three points be secured against the Stags, a trip to Stevenage shouldn’t be overly daunting given they’re no longer in relegation danger but, then again, Steve Evans has galvanised them with three wins and a draw from the last five matches.
Tranmere Rovers - 69pts | GD +10
- Oldham Athletic (H)
- Leyton Orient (A)
One of those victories for Stevenage was against Tranmere who have collapsed with one win in their last seven games, albeit with four of those draws. But if there’s one fixture to give you a late boost, outside of taking on Scunthorpe, it’s surely crisis-stricken and relegated Oldham.
As well as looking at their own form, however, Tranmere, like Salford, need a lot to go wrong for the teams immediately above them to sneak into the top seven as they also hold the weakest goal difference among the contenders.
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